15 increasingly bold predictions for the 2023-24 Miami Heat season

To get ready for the start of the Miami Heat’s 2023-24 season, here are 15 increasingly bold predictions, ranked in order of boldness.

Tier 1: Realistic predictions

1. Bam Adebayo will finally win Defensive Player of the Year

Let’s take a look at the betting favorites to win Defensive Player of the Year. The odds-on favorite is Jaren Jackson Jr., who won it last season. Jackson is an awesome defender — a switchable, block machine who makes opponents think whenever they’re in spitting distance of the hoop. But is he an all-time great defender?

The reason I bring this up is because the last players to win consecutive DPOYs over the last 15 years are historic, all-timer, first-ballot Hall of Fame defenders: Dwight Howard (2009-2011), Kawhi Leonard (2015-2016) and Rudy Gobert (2018-2019). Jackson is awesome, but he’s not on their level.

Between the history and a disappointing performance for Team USA at the FIBA World Cup (and the potential to be exposed with Steven Adams lost to season-ending surgery), momentum isn’t working in Jackson’s favor.

Moving on to the other candidates. Cleveland’s Evan Mobley is a great defender, but he and the Cavs are facing heightened expectations after last season’s finish. If coach J.B. Bickerstaff decides to stagger Mobley and Jarrett Allen more to juice the offense, Mobley could be limited in defending opposing bigs near the basket as opposed to showing off his versatility.

Anthony Davis has the third-best odds, but also could be ineligible if he doesn’t meet the NBA’s new 65-game minimum to qualify for season awards. The last time Davis was on track to play 65 games was the 2019-20 season.

Giannis Antetokounmpo has the fourth-best odds and there’s little doubt he’s one of the best defenders in the league. But the Bucks made a decision to tilt their team towards the offensive side of the ball, and the days of Milwaukee putting together an elite defensive unit could be over. Giannis and Brook Lopez are elite defenders at their position, but Damian Lillard, Malik Beasley and Khris Middleton (at this stage) are far from it. If the Bucks finish outside the top 10 in defensive rating (a strong possibility), then any chance of Giannis taking home his second DPOY award go out the window.

Adebayo is tied for the fifth-best odds with sensational rookie Victor Wembanyama. Let’s talk Wemby first. He’s great. He’s going to win this award, likely multiple times, over his career. But he’s a rookie and the Spurs could take things slow. Does he even reach the 65-game minimum? It’s fair to wonder.

Which leaves Bam. Most observers recognize that Adebayo is one of the truly elite defenders in today’s game and probably should have won this award at some point already. If the candidates in front of him are eliminated and the Heat can remain an elite unit on that end of the floor, then Bam has a pretty great chance at finally winning this award.

Bonus prediction: Adebayo sets a career-high in blocks. His career-best rate is 1.3 per game, back in 2019-20. He blocked Jackson four times in Miami’s preseason game against Memphis. He’s talked openly about the role stats play in this award. A little stat-chasing couldn’t hurt him.