2022 Sugar Bowl, Alabama-Kansas State: TV, lines and picks
In case you missed it, the Bayou Bets crew is holding their second annual College Bowl Pick ’Em, and we’re hoping you’re the big benefactor from our predictions.
Like we did last year, we started with $1,000 Bowl Bucks, and we’re making a play on each of the 42 bowl games this season. And when it’s over, we’ll take whatever money we have left and make a “Final Jeopardy” type pick in the National Championship Game in Inglewood, Calif., on Jan. 9, 2023.
Below are the picks from sports betting director Zach Ewing, along with staff writers Jim Derry, Spencer Urquhart and Gabe Henderson for the Orange Bowl, as it appeared in our original 2022-23 College Football Bowl Guide (Part 2). You can also see our Part 1 picks from Dec. 16 through Dec. 29.
These predictions were originally based off of lines and spreads as of early afternoon on Wednesday, Dec. 28, at Caesars Sportsbook. Also listed are spreads as of late Thursday, Dec. 29.
SUGAR BOWL
Alabama (10-2) vs. Kansas State (10-3)
Where: New Orleans
When/TV: 11 a.m. Dec. 31, ESPN
Dec. 28 line/total (for contest): Alabama -6.5 (ML -267); Kansas State (+215); O/U 56
Dec. 30 line/total: Alabama -7 (ML -278); Kansas State (+222); O/U 56
Zach Ewing: Alabama has a reputation of rolling over in non-BCS/CFP bowl games (a Sugar Bowl loss to Utah comes to mind) but the Tide actually is 3-2 ATS in this situation under Nick Saban. Bryce Young and Will Anderson are both playing, which tells you everything you need to know about how Bama wants to finish. The bet: Alabama -6.5 for $44.
Jim Derry: I do not like — AT ALL — that I am with the betting public here, especially with the line moving so much in Alabama’s favor. But how can anyone like anything but the Crimson Tide here? Bryce Young decided to play for some unknown reason, along with many of his teammates. They ain’t comin’ to New Orleans to lose. Give me Alabama to beat Michigan in the first semifinals game. Wait, what? Kansas State? Sugar Bowl? Sigh. The bet: Alabama -6.5 for $55.
Spencer Urquhart: This line shifted dramatically toward Alabama with the news that star players Bryce Young and Will Anderson would play. This Alabama team isn’t at the level of excellence that Nick Saban teams usually possess, but they’ve got plenty enough juice to boat race a Big 12 school that lost to Tulane earlier in the year. The bet: Alabama -6.5 for $66.
Gabe Henderson: All of the talk about Alabama not being deserving of a playoff spot — they weren’t, sorry, Jim — will add fuel to the fire. It’s rat poison if you ask Nick Saban, the players will eat it up though. There’s no way Kansas State beats SEC teams in back-to-back years, right? Gimme the Crimson Tide against almost anybody in the country when Nick Saban has a month to prepare. The bet: Alabama -6.5 for $22.
WHERE WE STAND
Through Friday (Dec. 30)
All picks and handicaps were made and written on or before Dec. 29, and lines were taken from Caesars Sportsbook as of Dec. 28. Staff writers were allowed to make a pick on the money line, spread, total or make no pick at all.
STARTING STACK FOR STAFFERS: $1,000 BOWL BUCKS
Zach Ewing: 23-11 overall, +$68 on Friday, balance $1,285.
Gabe Henderson: 17-15 overall, +$27 on Friday, balance $1,016.40.
Spencer Urquhart:12-21 overall, -$16 on Friday, balance $801.
Jim Derry: 12-20 overall, -$165 on Friday, balance $747.
