2023 Big Ten Betting Preview Series: Northwestern Wildcats

Eric Froton is previewing every Big Ten squad by looking back at their 2022 season, breaking down any changes in 2023, analyzing their rosters and handicapping their win total for the season.

Northwestern

HC - David Braun (1st year - Acting HC)
OC - Mike Bakajian (3rd year)
DC - David Braun (1st year)

2022 Record: 1-11
Second Order Win Total: 1.9 (0.9)
2022 Over/Under: 4 Wins
My 2022 Prediction: Under

Points/Yards Per Game
Points/Yards Allowed:

2023 SP+ Overall: 83rd
2023 SP+ Offense: 126th
2023 SP+ Defense: 28th
2022 SP+ Special Teams: 130th

Offensive Returning Production: 52% (93rd)
Defensive Returning Production: 71% (33rd)

247Sports Avg. Offensive Player Rating: .8508 (60th)
247Sports Avg. Defensive Player Rating: .8556 (48th)

2023 Schedule Strength: 28th

Looking Back at 2021 & 2022

In 2021, Northwestern returned just eight total starters from an exceptional 2020 team that made the Big Ten Championship game. A disappointing 3-9 season followed with HC Pat Fitzgerald managing just one Big Ten conference victory over Rutgers. Their 2021 offense struggled mightily, accruing just 16.6 points (6th lowest in FBS) and 322 total yards (15th lowest). Northwestern was one of the more inefficient units nationally that year, ranking 126th in points per scoring opportunity and 113th with a woeful -8 turnover ratio. Incumbent starting QB Ryan Hilinski had serious trouble adjusting to the college game, completing 54% of his passes with a 3-to-4 ratio and a poor 47.4 PFF passing grade. The 2021 offensive line that ranked 26th in rushing explosiveness returned four starters last year, including first-round 2023 NFL draft choice LT Peter Skoronski.

Throughout HC Pat Fitzgerald’s career, every time the Wildcats had a subpar Win-Loss record, they would bounce back with a winning campaign. In 2014 NW went 5-7, They went 10-3 in 2015. In 2016 they had a decent 7-6 record, then went 10-3 and 9-5 in the following two seasons. In 2019 they went 3-9 before going to the Big Ten Championship game against Ohio State in 2020.

So when Pats Cats slipped by going 3-9 in 2021, it made sense to assume Northwestern would once again pull themselves up by their bootstraps and find a way to churn out another winning season in 2022. That clearly did NOT happen, as Northwestern had their worst season in HC Pat Fitzgerald’s 17 years at the helm by going 1-11, losing 10-straight after squeezing out a dramatic 31-28 opening week victory over Nebraska. Even Southern Illinois and Miami (OH) managed to defeat Northwestern, while every Big Ten loss except for Maryland (53%) came replete with a win expectancy of 15% or lower. In short, Northwestern was simply unable to compete in the Big Ten last season, and given the tumultuous last week the program has experienced, there is no reason to expect a turnaround in 2023.

Looking ahead to 2023

The lack of offensive productivity was a major factor in the sustained decline, with the Cats owning the ignominious distinction of being the only Power Five team in the nation to average less than 14 points per game (13.8). In fact offensive stagnation has been an issue for the last nine years, with NW finishing with an SP+ offensive ranking higher than 84th overall just once in that entire time frame (54th in 2017). There weren’t many high-notes, but the one thing Northwestern did well across the board was pass block, as the offensive line did everything they could to keep Ryan Hilinski upright and productive, to no avail. The OL posted a strong 4.4% sack rate (35th), 5.6% passing down sack rate (32nd) and .6% blown run block rate (11th), while committing only 2.5 penalties per game, 11th fewest in FBS. Superstar LT Peter Skoronski was a 1st Round NFL selection this spring and they lost three other OL who started at least 10 games last year, dropping the unit’s experience level to just 27 total career starts. Sophomore Caleb Tiernan (6’7/325) filled in at LG last year, but moves back to LT with Skoronski’s departure. LG Josh Priebe accounts for 16 of the OL’s 27 career starts and returns after missing the second-half of 2022 due to injury. The Cats haven’t cleared the 4.0 YPC barrier since 2019, bottoming-out at an unsightly 3.2 YPC last year, and it’s going to be tough to break 4.0 this year with a rebuilt line and star RB Evan Hull moving onto the NFL (5th Rd pick). At least experienced backup-RB Cam Porter (5’10/220) is back and expected to handle the bulk, though he only averaged 2.3 yards after contact with 3 runs of 15+ yards in 87 carries last year.

If there will be an offensive resurgence this year, the quarterback play simply must improve. By a significant margin. Starting QB Ryan Hilinski was not the answer, producing a decrepit 47.7 PFF Pass grade, 5-to-17 Big Time Thow-to-Turnover Worthy Play ratio, 6.4 yards per pass attempt and a 55.8% comp rate. Fortunately, former Cincinnati starter Ben Bryant somehow still has another year of eligibility left and is a very suitable bridge-QB until promising sophomore Bendan Sullivan (74% comp rate in 96 attempts) is ready to take over. Bryant threw for 298 or more yards in 5-of-11 starts last year, posting a solid 23-to-11 BTT-to-TWP ratio with an 84.0 PFF Pass grade and 10.4 ADOT. In fact a little downfield moxie is exactly what this offense needs, as 41% of the team’s receptions went to slot receivers (31st in FBS) and 22% of Recs went to running backs (11th), while their 27.5% outside receiver reception rate ranked 114th overall. Leading wideout Malik Washington leaves 65 vacated targets in his wake following his transfer to Virginia, and #2 WR Donny Navarro departs as well. To make up for the losses, HC Fitzgerald welcomed in former 4-star Michigan transfer WR AJ Henning, and Arizona State transplant WR Cam Johnson.

After returning just four defensive starters, Northwestern’s 2021 D predictably failed to live up to their spectacular 2020 unit, allowing 29 points and 430 total yards per game which was the team’s worst collective defensive performance since 2005.

Last year, the Cats only returned five starters from the punchless 2021 defense that posted just 19 sacks and allowed a generous 67% completion rate. While NWs defense had ranked top-25 in SP+ Defense for seven consecutive years spanning 2014-2020, in 2022 the D plummeted to 77th, their worst showing in well over a decade. The line lost both starting defensive tackles from a group that had allowed a 47% rushing success rate (105th in FBS) and imported a pair of transfers from Stanford and UMass to try and revive a defense that ranked 110th in pressure rate. Fortunately DE Adetomiwa Adebawore returned and provided a steady presence on the defensive line, earning an 80.5 pass rush grade with 6.0 sacks and 31 pressures. Beyond the freakish Adebawore, Pat Fitzgerald’s trademark defense simply couldn’t get stops the way they did in year’s past, finishing 77th in defensive SP+ while allowing 28.3 PPG with a brutal 45.5% success rate allowed (107th).

The biggest issue was run defense, allowing a 52% rushing success rate (116th) with a brutal 84.6% tackle success rate (119th) and 14.6% stuff rate (109th). Opposing offenses battered the defensive interior, running the ball 67% of the time on standard downs, which was the second highest rate in FBS and 10% higher than the 57% average. The only thing this defense did particularly well was limiting the Big Play, ranking 21st in IsoPPP, 43rd in marginal explosiveness and 17th in completion rate of 20+ yards (13.5%). Despite those positive markers, Northwestern allowed wide open receivers to break loose 24.7% of the time (110th) while failing to make impactful plays, as is evidenced by a 12.3% overall Havoc rate (123rd).

All that being said there is a modicum of reason for optimism heading into 2023 defensively, starting with the hiring of new DC David Braun who comes over from North Dakota State where he won the 2021 FCS Coordinator of the Year Award. He will call the shots on D now that two-time Bednarik and Nagurski Award Winning HC Pat Fitzgerald is out of the HC job. What’s encouraging is there is only one senior in the projected starting lineup with 10 sophomores and juniors leading the way for the next two seasons. However, what that depth chart will look like following the hazing scandal is anyone’s guess. The defensive line is starting three sophomores in Najee Story, Carmine Bastone and Aidan Hubbard, with DE Sean McLaughlin the lone returning 12 game starter from 2022. The linebacker corps returns intact led by 3rd Team B10 MLB Bryce Gallagher and WLB Xander Mueller, who were the top two tacklers on the team last season, along with#4 tackler, Rod Heard. The secondary is the backbone of the team despite losing NFL DC Cameron Mitchell. Starting CB Garnett Hollis (51% comp rate, 83.1 PFF tackling grade) along with safeties Jeremiah Lewis (70 tackles, 4 PBU) Coco Azema (20 tackles/3 games before Inj.).

Northwestern’s D returns 71% of their 2022 production after two years of productive struggle. With new ace DC Braun, the only thing holding Northwestern back from pitching a stingy, sub-25 PPG defense is the ability to stop the run and put teams in 3rd-and-long situations, as they ranked 129th nationally in average third-down distance. How they handle the loss of Adebawore on the line will dictate just how much the D improves.

Analyzing Northwestern’s Win Total

Northwestern’s original Over/Under was set at 3.5 Wins before the recent hazing revelations that have brought the Fitzgerald era to an ignominious end. We will see what the books have to say about Northwestern’s new number post-Fitz, but it’s hard to back any form of Over given the Wildcats’ woeful performance over the last two seasons, and combined with the turmoil swirling around the program currently. Besides home games against UTEP and Howard, it’s hard to back Northwestern against any Big Ten opponent or @Duke in Week 2. I think 3 wins is the absolute ceiling for this flailing, dysfunctional program, but a two win season is the baseline, with UTEP legitimately in play for a Week 3 upset.