2023 Blue Grass Stakes Predictions: Top Five Contenders

This Saturday’s featured Kentucky Derby prep race at Keeneland is the Blue Grass Stakes. Open to three-year-old thoroughbreds, the Blue Grass has 11 entries, led by Tapit Trice at 5-2 odds. The prize purse is $1 million, and the Grade 1 stakes race is 1 1/8 miles on dirt.

Breaking down the top five horses for this race on the morning line odds, I have given a winning percentage to each one of the contestants.

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Tapit Trice (5-2)

This Kentucky-bred colt has raced four times in his early career, and he has won the last three events at Aqueduct, Gulfstream Park and Tampa Bay Downs. As a three-year-old, Tapit Trice won a one-mile Allowance race at Gulfstream on Feb. 4 before capturing first place at Tampa Bay Downs on March 11 in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby.

Sired by Tapit, he drew the No. 1 gate for this race with jockey Luis Saez. Trained by Todd Pletcher, Tapit Trice has raced at least one mile on dirt in his early career. As long as he gets off to a clean start, the favorite will be among the leaders in the backstretch.

Winning Percentage: 45%

Verifying (3-1)

Starting at gate No. 3, Verifying should be neck-and-neck with Tapit Trice to win the race. He has Brad Cox as his trainer and Tyler Gaffalione as his jockey. He also has placed first or second in three of five races in his early career. Verifying did take fourth in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park on Feb. 25, but he ran into tough competition with Confidence Game, Red Route One and Reincarnate in the money.

Winning Percentage: 30%

Raise Cain (9-2)

As a son of Violence, he won the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct on March 4. Raise Cain covering 1 1/16 miles on dirt in 1:38.09 over Slip Mahoney and General Banker. He also finished first, second or third in his two-year-old career. Trained by Ben Colebrook and ridden by jockey Joel Rosario, Raise Cain is breaking out of the No. 10 gate in the Blue Grass Stakes. He is stepping up in distance and grade in this race, but he has a knack for finishing in the money for major grade events.

Winning Percentage: 15%

Blazing Sevens (6-1)

Trained by Chad Brown, he is starting from the No. 8 gate with Irad Ortiz Jr. as his jockey. Blazing Sevens placed a distance eight in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth on March 4 at Gulfstream Park. However, he finished first or third in three races as a two-year-old colt. As a son of Good Magic, he has raced over a mile on dirt his last two events. Blazing Sevens has also raced at Keeneland before.

Winning Percentage: 5%

Sun Thunder (10-1)

As a three-year-old colt, he raced at Fair Grounds his last two major graded events. Sun Thunder finished second in the Grade 2 Risen Star on Feb. 18 before placing fifth in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby on March 25. The Blue Grass Stakes is another major graded stakes race to get points for qualifying for the Kentucky Derby in first Saturday in May.

Winning Percentage: 5%