2023 Champions League Final Prop Bets & Odds: Man City vs. Inter

The UEFA Champions League Final takes center stage from Istanbul Saturday, representing the final opportunity of the season for soccer bettors. 

Manchester City, seeking to add to their Premier League and FA Cup titles, is a heavy favorite against Inter Milan, who arrive as north of a +300 underdog to lift the trophy. 

However, rather than focusing on the game outcome, we’ve analyzed the ample prop markets available to bettors to locate winners. For the game within the game, bettors can focus on countless different markets, such as goalscorers, corner count, or even a player to be carded. 

With that in mind, here are our two best prop angles for the final. The odds are reflective at the time of writing and are subject to movement.

UEFA Champions League Final Prop No. 1

Denzel Dumfries Anytime Card (+210) – FanDuel Sportsbook

Dumfries has largely avoided the referee’s ire during the Champions League, but he’s going up against a pesky Jack Grealish. 

That matchup should put Dumfries’ defensive weaknesses on full display. According to fbref.com, the Dutch international ranks in the 13th percentile in tackles, the 12th in interceptions, and the 15th in clearances. 

On the flip side, Grealish sits in the 98th percentile in progressive carries and the 77th percentile in successful take-ons. 

Opposing right-backs have seen frequent cards against the England international as a function of those metrics. Across City’s last six Champions League fixtures, the opposing right-back has received a card in all but one, including five straight. 

Given Inter’s defensive structure – manager Simone Inzaghi opts for a back-three – expect City to work the ball to the wings rather than operating centrally. Thus, there should be ample opportunity for Grealish to draw fouls and see Dumfries earn a card. 

UEFA Champions League Final Prop No. 2

Lautaro Martinez 1+ Shots on Target (-130) – FanDuel Sportsbook

From his current form, Martinez offers the biggest threat to this Manchester City defense. 

This season, the Argentine international has a player rating of 7.35, per fotmob.com. However, dating back to April 11, Martinez possesses a player rating of 7.75 in 15 fixtures. 

Within that 15-match sample, Martinez has scored in eight matches, a simple way of cashing this prop. However, he’s put a shot on target in nine of those 15 matches. 

However, Martinez’s record changes a bit when you only sample the matches in which he starts. Although he failed to register a shot on target against Torino in his last match, bettors will find he’s hit this prop in four of his last five starts. 

Expand the sample to consider Martinez’s last eight starts, and bettors will find he’s produced a shot on target in all but two matches. 

Against a tired City defense that’s conceded almost four shots on target per 90 in their last six UEFA Champions League fixtures, expect Martinez to do no worse than a single attempt on frame.