2023 Kentucky Derby: 5 Trends You Need to Know

Betting isn’t the only thing many Kentucky Derby fans look forward to. They are also looking into trends that make the derby even more interesting. These trends can be fun and sometimes also help you increase your chance of winning by choosing the right horse to bet on.

Trends have been a part of the Kentucky Derby. However, if you aren’t yet familiar with the Kentucky Derby trends or only know a few, we have listed some trends below that you might want to look at and see if these trends can help you with your derby goals.

Kentucky Derby Post Position Trend

Throughout the Kentucky Derby’s history, you will notice that the post position that produces the most wins is post number 5. Meanwhile, post position number 7 has never produced a winner ever since.

The last winner from the post position 5 was Always Dreaming in 2017. If you want to increase your chance of winning, you might want to consider this trend and place a wager on the horse in post number five. On the contrary, you must avoid post number 7 at all costs.

Whether it’s just coincidence or luck, knowing this trend will help you decide whom to bet on in the upcoming Kentucky Derby race. Pay close attention to the post position draw days before the Kentucky Derby race on May 6.

Winning Odd Trend

Another trend that you should watch out for if you are betting for the 149th running of the Kentucky Derby is the odd trend. Throughout the years since 1946, out of all 76 contenders that won, 21 of them had 10-1 odds and higher.

Let’s not go too far to look for examples of this trend. The 2022 Kentucky Derby winner, Rich Strike, had 80-1 longshot odds. No one thought he would win the race, as Epicenter was the heavy favorite last year.

Bettors who took the risk and placed their wager in favor of Rich strike won $818 for every $10 they bet. Imagine the profit they earned when they decided to trust this longshot Derby contender. Though risky, you can incorporate a longshot horse into your Kentucky Derby betting strategy.

The Fanduel odds list will keep you up to date with the recent odds of the probable Kentucky Derby contenders. It will help you know who is the longshot among the contenders this year.

The Winning Horse Color Trend

The number three Kentucky Derby trend you should watch is the winning horse’s color. Racehorses come in various sizes, variations, and colors. These colors include gray/roan, black, brown/dark bay, white, palomino, chestnut, and bay.

These colors of the racehorses aren’t only giving the horses their characteristics, but it has also been a part of the Kentucky Derby trends. Throughout the decades, 70% of the Kentucky Derby winners are either bay or chestnut. Being the bay colors, horses win most, and chestnut comes second.

This trend is worth noting if you are the kind of bettor who decides based on trends. If you want to back up this claim with your findings, you should research and see for yourself.

Kentucky Derby Fashion Hat Trend

Let’s move on to a lighter trend that has been going on in the Kentucky Derby: the fashion hat. It has become the Kentucky Derby tradition that every woman, or some men, must wear their best hats.

The wearing of Kentucky Derby hats came from the race’s English predecessor, the Epsom Derby. The founder of the Kentucky Derby, Colonel Meriwether Lewis Clark Jr, and Mary, his other half, went to France and England before the Kentucky Derby was inaugurated.

The couple was impressed with what they saw and brought the fashion from France and England to Louisville during the launch of the Kentucky Derby. She influenced other women to do the same when watching the Kentucky Derby.

From then on, it has become a fashion statement for women attending the Kentucky Derby, so the trend begins.

Favorites Aren’t A Sure Win

Horse racing, including the Kentucky Derby, can’t guarantee its outcome. This last trend we will discuss is proof of it. Favorites are horses that have the highest chance of winning. Thus, the betting public puts their money on that contender.

The reason behind the confidence of the bettors in the favorite could be from the thoroughbred’s past performance, form, speed, stamina, trainer, jockey, and bloodline. Although these factors have a huge impact on the possible outcome of a race, it still doesn’t provide a guarantee.

Therefore, you must not become complacent with your choice just because he is the derby favorite. Anything could happen during race day, and this has been proven recently. One example was the 2022 Kentucky Derby.

An underdog defeated the favorite Epicenter. Another example was the 2021 Kentucky Derby, where Essential Quality won but only finished fourth. The same goes for Kentucky Derby races in 2020 and 2019, where the winners aren’t the favorites.

That said, it’s best not to be overly confident with the favorite and still follow the facts you gathered through your research and gut feeling.

The Bottomline

Trends make the Kentucky Derby even more exciting, whether you are just spectating or betting. You can follow the trends and make the most out of your 149th running of the Kentucky Derby experience.