2023 Kentucky Derby picks: Long shot horses to bet at Churchill Downs

In a lot of ways, last year’s Kentucky Derby was a one-off.

Rich Strike, an 80-1 outsider that entered the field just a day before the race after Ethereal Road scratched, won the race in stunning fashion, upsetting a field that included popular favorites Zandon (3/1), Epicenter (7/2) and Messier (8/1).

Rich Strike’s owner Rick Dawson told NBC after the race that they decided to enter Rich Strike “30 seconds before the deadline.”

It’s very unlikely we’ll ever see anything like that again in the Kentucky Derby.

That said, the race served as a reminder of the betting opportunity that the “Run for the Roses” provides.

The first leg of the Triple Crown thrives on chaos.

There are 20 horses in the field and there’s so many ways things can get funky in a race with that much traffic and talent.

Thus, if you have a strong opinion on an outsider and you’re right (and, most importantly, you get some breaks), the upside is enormous.

The winning exacta from 2022 paid $4,101.20 on a $2 ticket.

The correct trifecta of Rich Strike and the two favorites — Epicenter and Zandon — paid $14,870.70 on a $1 bet. 

Here are a couple of horses to keep in mind in case things go off the rails again on the First Saturday in May: 

2023 Kentucky Derby picks

No. 8 Mage (15/1)

You’ll likely know if Mage has a chance to win the Kentucky Derby within the first two seconds of the race.

A talented-but-inexperienced colt, Mage’s biggest problem in his career is that he has trouble getting out of the gate.

This issue was on display in the Florida Derby when Mage didn’t break gracefully and it ended up costing him the race.

However, Mage lost that race by only one length to Derby favorite Forte despite needing to do more work.

If Mage is able to break cleanly, he’ll have the speed to contend in this field and is definitely worth using in a variety of ways on Saturday.

No. 9 Skinner (20/1)

Likely a trendy long shot, Skinner has the pedigree that a lot of railbirds look for in a Kentucky Derby contender.

Skinner’s sire, Curlin, won the Preakness and hit the board in all three Triple Crown races, and has since produced a handful of other notable horses such as Kentucky Derby runner-up Exaggerator, Belmont winner Palace Malice, Breeders’ Cup Classic champion Vino Rosso and Kentucky Oaks and Breeders’ Cup Distaff winner Malathaat.

Curlin’s offspring tend to have the right qualities — a mix of speed and stamina — to do big things at the Kentucky Derby.

Kentucky Derby 2023 Betting: Everything you need

No. 7 Reincarnate (50/1)

One of the general narratives for the 149th Kentucky Derby is that, on paper, it lacks speed.

If that is the case, that could present a path to success for a quick-breaker such as Reincarnate, who will look to get off the blocks quickly and get to the front of the pack. 

Also appealing for a horse at this price is that three-time Kentucky Derby winner John Velazquez will be in the saddle.

Two of Velazquez’s Run for the Roses triumphs came from the front end, so he seems a shrewd pick to be in the saddle here.