2023 MLB Free Agents: Predictions for Top Pitchers Set to Hit Open Market
The free agency market in 2023 will be brimming with quality starters, with former Cy Young award winners and high-profile arms potentially looking for a new home.
Headlining the class is all-everything, potentially greatest-of-all-time Shohei Ohtani, who will command as much attention for his pitching as he will his ability to blast any ball out of the park.
This, despite coming off of a torn UCL that will keep him off the mound until 2025.
Where will baseball's version of the unicorn, and other red-hot free agents, land this offseason?
Find out with this look at three stars in particular.
Marcus Stroman started the 2023 season as one of the best pitchers in the big leagues, with an ERA of 2.47 as June came to a close. A July 15 game against Boston saw him allow four earned runs and said ERA ticked up from there.
A rib cartilage fracture suffered over the summer, which put him out of action for over a month, may have had something to do with the regression of his game and as September comes to a close, that number sits at 3.88.
There was plenty to like about Stroman's play early in the season and, with the Cubs exceeding expectations by competing for a Wild Card spot, a reunion is not out of the equation for a pitcher who once appeared to be trade deadline bait.
Stroman has an option in his current deal with Chicago and according to Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic, "It appears to be highly likely that Stroman will opt into his $21 million salary for next season."
This, despite making it abundantly clear earlier in the season that he wanted a contract extension. The injury, coupled with the Cubs' unexpected success, will likely be the deciding factor in his decision to opt in.
If he does.
There will be teams looking for starters, as is the case every offseason, but the foundation of what Chicago has built with the acquisition of Dansby Swanson, the play of Corey Bellinger (who the team will have to pony up cash to retain), and the promise of young players like Pete Crow-Armstrong should be enough to convince Stroman that his situation in the Windy City isn't so bad.
If the team falters in 2024 but his play mirrors what he did in the first half of this season, though, do not be surprised to hear his name in trade talk.
Prediction: Stroman opts in and stays with Chicago
Blake Snell may very well accomplish something only three other pitchers in baseball history have done: lead Major League Baseball in both ERA and walks.
Entering the final week of the season, he has accumulated a league-low 2.25 ERA and 99 walks, eight more than Michael Kopech of the White Sox.
It is, perhaps, the most Snell thing ever but he is also leading the league in opponent batting average (1.81) and that, coupled with the ERA, should be enough to earn him the Cy Young in the National League.
If he does capture the award, he would become just the seventh pitcher to win in both leagues, joining Gaylord Perry, Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, Roy Halladay, and Max Scherzer.
That is elite company and a legitimate accomplishment, just not one that is likely to lead to a big-money deal with the Padres.
Bob Nightingale of USA Today reported, "The San Diego Padres, who had the third-highest opening-day payroll in baseball, have no plans to bring back free agents Blake Snell or Josh Hader in 2024."
That is as definitive as it gets, despite Nightingale that Snell wanted to stay in San Diego.
With Snell expected to be a top pitching free agent, if not the most coveted, he will fetch a big contract. The New York Mets are a team to watch, even if they are still shell-shocked from a disastrous 2023 season that fell far short of expectations.
The team needs starting pitching and, while there will be hesitation following the failed acquisitions of Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, Snell is 30 years old and seemingly in his prime, neither of which the future Hall of Famers were when they came to Queens.
The Texas Rangers and Philadelphia Phillies are also potential suitors as neither organization has been particularly shy about spending money in the pursuit of upgrading their rosters and chasing a World Series title.
Prediction: Snell signs with New York
Shohei Ohtani will be the most coveted free agent in modern baseball history when free agency opens on Thursday, November 10.
The definition of a "unicorn" in the sport of baseball, he is a rare two-way player who excels both at hitting and pitching. He is unlike anything MLB has ever seen and considering the rich, expansive history of the league, that is a massive statement.
Ohtani suffered a torn ulnar collateral ligament and underwent surgery to repair it, ensuring he will not take to the mount until 2025. Even then, he is still going to command a potentially historic contract, most likely north of $500 million, a number that will realistically limit his potential suitors those in bigger markets or with owners unafraid to spend money.
Both of those descriptions fit Mets owner Steve Cohen who, despite the aforementioned disaster that 2023 has been, remains committed to bringing fans the best team possible. MLB insider Ken Rosenthal lent credibility to that, reporting the team remains in play for Ohtani despite early reports that the team would focus more on 2025.
In his report, Rosenthal expressed belief that the race for Ohtani comes down to the Mets and Dodgers, another team unafraid to spend. That the organization is on the West coast, an area where Ohtani has spent his entire big league career and is closer to his home in Japan, would certainly weigh on his decision.
As would the fact that, as it currently stands, the Dodgers are a better run organization equipped to go on a World Series run. If they can do so this postseason and win the pennant in the National League, it may be nearly impossible to persuade the player, desperate to win, to go anywhere else.
Prediction: Ohtani joins the Dodgers, stays in MVP form, and returns to quality pitching in 2025
