2023 NBA Betting Odds: Lakers, Nuggets co-favorites to win title

In a city with far-fetched Hollywood storylines, the Los Angeles Lakers have shockingly become betting co-favorites for an NBA title that would be considered perhaps the unlikeliest in league history. That, in turn, would generate a significant net loss for all sportsbooks.

The Lakers and Denver Nuggets each currently have +300 championship odds at Caesars Sportsbook, as each sit one playoff win away from facing one other in the Western Conference Finals. However, while Denver expected to contend with two-time reigning MVP Nikola Jokic and eventually captured the one-seed, the Lakers have virtually come out of nowhere.

Los Angeles entered the season with the eighth-shortest odds at 18-1 and the outlook only worsened from there. They lost 10 of their first 12 games and their championship odds reached as high as 200-1 around Thanksgiving at some sportsbooks and even 40-1 as recently as Feb. 1. Their odds to miss the playoffs peaked around -300, which translates to a 75% likelihood.

An added twist is the franchise's extreme popularity that inevitably brings in wagers, which can pose significant liability when they carry such long odds. This perfect storm has created a situation in which all books would suffer a sizeable net loss with a Lakers title, even though the house would win every single wager on all 29 other teams.

"I always equate the Lakers to Tiger Woods. People are always going to bet them. It doesn't mean you just keep the Lakers at 5-1 odds all year. You still have to put it in perspective, in relation to the other teams," SuperBook VP of risk management and head NBA oddsmaker Jeff Sherman told ESPN.

"We lost six figures when Tiger won The Masters in 2019 and we will every year moving forward. We adjusted the Lakers odds and people still bet them." Sparking this turnaround were midseason moves that are uncommon for an eventual NBA champion.

The Lakers traded away the polarizing Russell Westbrook, among others, and returned D'Angelo Russell, Jarred Vanderbilt, Malik Beasley and Mo Bamba. This brought in two new starters and depth that helped them absorb lengthy injuries to LeBron James and Anthony Davis.

"This doesn't happen too often in the NBA but there is a bit more parity now," Caesars lead NBA trader David Lieberman told ESPN.

"It's definitely possible to find a team that squeaks into the playoffs, but at the same time is still dangerous and capable of going deep. Both the Lakers and the Heat fit that bill this year." Oddsmakers entered the season braced for unprecedented balance in a league often considered predictable due to star power and the best-of-seven playoff format.

Only four times in league history has a long shot of 15-1 or longer won the championship, according to SportsOddsHistory.com. That is easily the fewest of the four major pro sports. The Lakers must still dethrone Steph Curry and the defending champion Golden State Warriors. They lead that Conference Semifinal 3-1 and are -510 series favorites but are also seven-point road underdogs in Game 5.