2023 NHL Stanley Cup odds: Tampa Bay Lightning worth a shot

The Tampa Bay Lightning have had a weird year.

After making it to their third straight Stanley Cup Final in 2021-22, the Bolts got off to a strong start and banked enough points in the first few months of the campaign that they could feel comfortable knowing that they’d make it to the postseason for a sixth season on the spin. 

Thus, you couldn’t blame the Lightning, who have played a ton of hockey over the years, for going into cruise control.

Tampa would ramp things up when it needed to.

Still, with the Boston Bruins wrapping up the division basically by Christmas and the Florida Panthers never really threatening their spot in the top three in the Atlantic Division, the Lightning have realistically known for quite some time that they’d be playing the Toronto Maple Leafs in Round 1 of the Stanley Cup playoffs again. 

Those circumstances rendered a lot of Tampa’s games down the stretch as pretty meaningless, which is hard for a team that’s won two Stanley Cups in the past three years to come to grips with.

It should also be noted that this is nothing new for this group.

Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Stanley Cup odds

The Bolts are a team that’s built to win in the postseason and have at times talked about how they’ll pace themselves through the 82-game regular season to ensure that they’re as fresh as possible for the big dance. 

All of this makes the Lightning an almost impossible team to read and handicap.

Who are the real Lightning? 

On one hand, we know what this team is capable of doing.

It may have lost a couple of pieces over the last few years, but that’s nothing new to this group, and the Bolts still have the same elite core of skaters playing in front of arguably the best goaltender in the NHL over the last five years.

That star power, blended with the pedigree and coaching that this team has in its locker room, makes the Bolts a really tempting team to back at 14/1, which makes them the ninth-favorite to win the Stanley Cup. 

But at the same time you have to wonder how much this team has left in the tank and if it’s going to be enough for the gauntlet it’ll need to run this spring.

Not only do the Lightning have a tough Round 1 matchup with the Maple Leafs — oddsmakers currently have Toronto as -145 favorites in that best-of-seven series — but if they navigate that tussle, they’ll likely play the historically good Bruins in the second round.

And should the Lightning somehow upset the B’s, they’ll likely have another really tough showdown with a strong team from the Metropolitan Division bracket. 

In other words, the Lightning will likely be underdogs in the first two rounds of the postseason and could wind up being plus-money in all four rounds of the postseason if they get to a fourth final in a row.

Betting on the NHL?

It’s hard to wrap your head around. 

There is no right or wrong way to feel about this edition of the Tampa Bay Lightning.

If you are convinced they’re cooked and want to bet against them in Round 1, there is some evidence supporting your handicap.

If you’re convinced they’re laying in the weeds and are good sleeper value at 14/1, well, you’ve got plenty of proof in that pudding, too.