2023 Women’s World Cup: Italy vs. Argentina odds, pick & prediction

Two of the great powers in football will meet in the wee hours of Monday morning (2 a.m. ET) as Italy takes on Argentina in what could end up being an elimination match in Group G. That may sound a bit dramatic considering it’s the tournament-opener for each side, but when you take a step back and consider how this group sets up you’ll see just how important this tilt will be for both teams.

Sweden is a massive favorite to win the group at -550, while South Africa is expected to be the worst team in the set by a wide margin. That means the most likely outcome is that Italy and Argentina will duke it out for second-place and a spot in the knockout stages.

Bookmakers give Italy the edge on Monday, but there’s reason to believe that Le Azzurre could be vulnerable to an upset against Argentina.

This is the fourth appearance for Italy at a Women’s World Cup and they were a surprise quarterfinalist four years ago, but that hardly has much to do with what we’ll see from Le Azzurre in this iteration of the competition. And if we go by recent form, there are some reasons to be concerned with how things are shaping up for the Italians.

After finishing bottom of their group at Euro 2022, Italy has experienced mixed results over the past 18 months. The Italians thumped Moldova and beat Romania, 2-0, to qualify for the World Cup, but they also lost five matches in a row against Brazil, Austria, Northern Ireland, Belgium and England between the end of 2022 and the beginning of 2023. The Italians would rebound with a couple of wins against Colombia and New Zealand, but they fell flat in a nil-nil draw against Morocco at home on July 1.

The recent form of the Italians suggests this team could struggle against teams like Argentina.

While Italy’s form has been a mixed bag, Argentina should be brimming with confidence ahead of the World Cup. La Albiceleste are 5-1-0 (W-D-L) in 2023 and have only conceded one goal in that span. The quality of competition for Argentina has not been anything to write home about, but they did produce two clean-sheet victories against New Zealand and put together emphatic wins against Chile, Venezuela and Peru.

Italy may be the more experienced side with more pedigree, Argentina is not without star power. Yamila Rodriguez was the leading scorer at the 2022 Copa America and should provide a stern test for an Italian defense that is supposed to be the strength of the side.

These odds are just too wide considering Italy’s inconsistency. Back the ‘dog.

The Bet: Argentina +400 (DraftKings)

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