2024 Houston Astros Predictions with World Series Odds and Season Win Total Picks
The Houston Astros would win the AL West division title thanks to their head-to-head record against the Texas Rangers, as the club finished 90-72. Unfortunately for the Astros, they would go on to fall to the Rangers in the ALCS in seven games, with no team recording a home win in the series. Houston was five games worse than their expected record due to their poor performance in extra-inning games, as they went just 1-8 in games that surpassed nine innings.
Despite missing 48 games, Yordan Alvarez clubbed a team-leading 31 homeruns and finished third on the team with 97 RBIs. Kyle Tucker, however, was the club’s offensive MVP last season, as the outfielder slashed .284/.369/.517, led the team with 30 stolen bases and 112 RBIs, while also finishing second on the team in homeruns and runs. Alex Bregman, Chas McCormick, and Yanier Diaz also recorded more than 20 homeruns, while Bregman and Jose Abreu recorded 90 or more RBIs. As a team, the Astros ranked in the top five in OPS, runs, hits, and 7th in homeruns.
The rotation was not the strength of the Astros last season, with only one starter finishing with an ERA below 3.50. Framber Valdez recorded 20 quality starts across 31 starts and finished with a 3.45 ERA, 200 strikeouts, a 1.13 WHIP, and a team leading 3.1 WAR. Relievers, Bryan Abreu and Hector Neris brought it out of the bullpen, as the duo both finished with ERAs less than 1.80 and both had K/9 ratios above 10. Ryan Pressly struggled as the bullpens anchor as he finished with a 3.58 ERA despite recording 31 saves.
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Houston Astros Key Additions/Losses
The offseason was quite uneventful for the club, though they did lose a handful of veterans. Pitchers Hector Neris, Phil Maton, and Ryne Stanek became free agents, while outfielder Michael Brantley retired, and catcher Martin Maldonado left via free agency.
The offseason was highlighted by the long-term signing of shutdown closer Josh Hader. Hader signed a five-year deal and will be the club’s new closer despite his struggles over the last few seasons. The Astros also brought in catcher Victor Caratini on a two-year deal and traded for reliever Dylan Coleman.
Houston Astros Prospect Outlook
The Astros farm system may rank at the bottom of the MLB with almost no immediate impact prospects. Though they don’t need them right now, and they are clearly in win now mode the minor leagues are depleted. Outfielder Kenedy Corona (11th) is the only Top 30 prospect on Houston’s roster.
Houston Astros X-Factors
Offensive Depth- Though the top of the lineup is lethal, an injury to one of Jose Altuve, Alvarez, Bregman, Tucker, or Abreu will be incredibly impactful on the team’s success. The outfield has no depth, and the infield would have to depend on the likes of Jon Singleton and Mauricio Dubon. The durability of the top five in the lineup becomes even more important now, as the Astros don’t have a lot of attractive prospects to trade away for another bat.
Pitching Reinforcements- Justin Verlander, Lance McCullers Jr., and Luis Garcia are all currently dealing with injuries and may miss some time, while Valdez, Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown, and Jose Urquidy all struggled last season. Again, with no prospects to flip, this is likely all the team is going to get, so it is imperative that Valdez, Javier, and Verlander perform at an elite level.
Youth- Yainer Diaz, Jeremy Pena, and Bryan Abreu are the only players on this club at 26 or younger than will see significant playing time this season. The team will need Abreu to set up Hader, while the lineup will look for Diaz and Pena to clean up the top of the order.
Houston Astros Expectations
This veteran club is still competing at a high level, but time is running out on their championship window. With the club failing to get younger, and the farm system ranking among the worst in the MLB, the time is now. Unfortunately, they are going to depend on the health of their veterans as well as the Astros are one or two significant injuries away from potentially missing October altogether. However, assuming the health of this club, the Astros should be competing with the Rangers and Mariners for the AL West title.
Houston Astros Notable Odds:
World Series Champions- +700
Pennant Winners- +380
Division Winners- -105
AL MVP- Yordan Alvarez- +950
AL CY Young- Framber Valdez- +1000
AL Manager of the Year- Joey Espada- +1200
Houston Astros Predictions
I think the Astros are the third best team in the AL West. The Mariners rotation is deep, while the Rangers appear to be more complete on paper. However, I love the value of Joey Espada for AL Manager of the Year at +1200. He is inheriting a championship caliber team in his first season as manager. Though that is considered, if the Astros can dominate the AL West, he would be a leading candidate. However, I would stay away from the AL West Champion future and anything further. I believe the team’s best days are behind them.
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