2024 MLB odds, predictions: Fade Dodgers' historic wins total

With a billion dollar spending spree in free agency, the Los Angeles Dodgers hogged the majority of the headlines this offseason, acquiring the two biggest names on the market: Shohei Ohtani and NPO superstar Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

They also hauled in Tyler Glasnow and Manuel Margot via a blockbuster trade with the Rays, as well as free agents Teoscar Hernandez and James Paxton.

As a result, no team is as favored as the Dodgers to win their respective division this season — and it’s not particularly close.

A division that holds a -550 favorite for the title, as well as the Rockies ‘second-lowest projected win total of 60.5 wins – behind only the anticipated historically bad Oakland A’s – might not sound overly exciting to bettors, but there are some narratives that make it quite compelling.

2024 NL West projections

The Diamondbacks, Giants, and Padres all enter this season with realistic playoff aspirations but are far from locks.

Odds are that only one of the three will make the postseason, but there are valid arguments as to why any of the three could improve upon their 2023 win totals.

Diamondbacks fans likely feel pretty confident ahead of the 2024 season.

Arizona retained key pieces from its stunning run to the World Series, while also bolstering its roster with some savvy signings.

Eduardo Rodriguez looks to be a good fit to help round out a pitching staff that, at worst, should be able to match last season’s results.

Neither Zac Gallen nor Merrill Kelly appear due for notable regression, and Brandon Pfaadt has the stuff to take serious steps forward.

Joc Pederson, who put up a wRC+ of 111 last season with the Giants, could prove useful in a DH role.

The Padres suffered through some tough luck in 2023 en route to a highly disappointing 82-80 record. They owned a Pythagorean record of 92-70, finished second in ERA and seventh in wRC+.

Given the same roster, those marks would’ve made them an obvious candidate for positive regression.

However, they will offer a far different look this year, as Juan Soto and Trent Grisham were traded to the Yankees, while NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell likely is not going to be re-signed.

There is still a solid case for the Padres to surprise and hang around in the wild-card race, and that perhaps those losses are being slightly overvalued.

Mike Schildt could be the right manager to help repair a broken clubhouse.

He still has some elite talents left on the roster to work with in Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts and Manny Machado, and the surrounding cast could be more effective than expected. 

Jackson Merrill, the Padres’ No. 2 prospect, will likely have some growing pains but could prove to be an effective player as he transitions from shortstop to the outfield.

Luis Campusano can offer solid productivity behind the plate, and healthy competition for time in the outfield could be a good thing.

Joe Musgrove is set to pitch Thursday’s Cactus League opener, and should be at full strength for the Padres’ opening series in Seoul. He still has the upside of a low-end ace.

Yu Darvish has some concerning underlying numbers, but it is still fair to say he has the upside of a steady second option. Michael King was solid last season and should hold down a sub-3.80 ERA again.

The San Francisco Giants are right there with the Padres in terms of preseason expectations from oddsmakers.

They made some steady moves in the offseason and likely aren’t done, as they remain $32 million below last season’s spend.

The addition of Jorge Soler, a right-handed power bat, should fit well in the heart of the Giants’ order, especially if free-agent signee Jung Hoo Lee, who finished his KBO career with a .340 career average, can continue to get on base at an elite level.

Kyle Harrison, projected to be the team’s No. 2 starter, has the arm talent to put together a strong campaign.

The Rockies, meanwhile, project as a safe bet to remain firmly entrenched at the bottom of the division. They brought in Cal Quantrill and Dakota Hudson to help round out the rotation but did not make any moves that suggest they will avoid a third consecutive last-place finish.

All things considered, this division might not be as bad as people think.

NL West best bet

Without question, the Dodgers enter the season with one of the more stacked rosters that has ever been assembled.

That might make betting the under, even on a historically high preseason total, tough to sell.

In 2023, the Dodgers put up 106 wins, and this team is clearly better, right?

Even for a roster as talented as this years Dodgers are offering, they will need to end up on the favorable side of injury variance and own a strong record in close contests to get to 105 wins.

The 2023 team came in six wins above its Pythagorean record of 100-62.

Even if the Dodgers are to simply play to their expected record this year, that could cover up for the additions to the roster in terms of added wins.

PECOTA projects 101.9 wins, while FanGraphs is notably bearish, with a projection of only 93.

Out of the entire division’s win projections, per oddsmakers, the Dodgers’ under is the lone total both models agree is off by two or more in either direction.

There’s no debating that the lineup adds an incredible bat with the addition of Ohtani.

However, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman combined to play 313 games last season, all at an MVP level. It’s quite possible we see some combination of lesser play — or worse, injury luck — from the duo.

The starting rotation will be excellent as well, but there are still some question marks that could make it underachieve relative to this historic betting total.

Yamamoto could take some time to adjust at the MLB level, or perhaps just disappoint altogether. Even a 4.00 ERA from Yamamoto would work against 106 wins.

Tyler Glasnow’s 120 innings pitched in 2023 was a career-high. What if he misses meaningful time again?

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I’m not entirely convinced James Paxton will be a high-level arm this season, either.

There are solid cases as to why the Diamondbacks, Giants and Padres could surprise to make a tougher environment than expected in the division.

Maybe there is merit to Betts’ statement that every team will be out to get the Dodgers, too, and that they will always see their opponents’ best.

Do I want to root against baseball’s superteam compiled with an astronomical payroll? Of course. I think a lot of people will be in that boat, even if all of the Dodgers stars are quite likeable.

Getting +100 to bet under 104.5 gives us a good number to do so and many projection systems agree. 

Best bet: Dodgers under 104.5 wins (+100, bet365)