2024 MLB Season Preview: San Diego Padres
The San Diego Padres entered the 2023 season with championship aspirations and a star-studded roster, but pulled off an epic faceplant and missed the postseason entirely. The offseason has been a sea change both on and off the field. Manager Bob Melvin left to take over as manager of the San Francisco Giants shortly after the season ended. Then, owner Peter Seidler passed away in mid-November. San Diego spent the remainder of the offseason trying to walk the parallel path of cutting salary while remaining competitive.
Where were they in 2023?
The Padres were huge spenders again last offseason, giving Xander Bogaerts $280 million in hopes that he would be the final piece of an elite core that included Fernando Tatis Jr., Juan Soto, and Manny Machado. San Diego came into the season among the World Series favorites, with the second-best forecast behind the Braves. FanGraphs’ model gave them a 55 percent chance of walking away with the NL West and 85 percent playoff odds altogether, but nothing ever clicked. The Padres finished the season with an 82-80 record, but were under .500 for most of the season before winning 20 of their last 27 games. That late push vaulted them back into playoff contention, but the hole was simply too deep as they finished two games back of the final Wild Card spot.
Despite having multiple skilled offensive players and a pitching staff featuring Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell and elite closer Josh Hader, the Padres were just 2-12 in extra inning games and 9-23 in games decided by one run. Soto put up a monster season with 35 homers, a 155 wRC+ and 5.5 fWAR. Bogaerts, Tatis Jr. and Ha-Seong Kim all finished with 4.4 fWAR seasons. Manny Machado was slowed due to an elbow issue, but still hit 30 homers and produced 3.5 fWAR.
Snell came out on top in the Cy Young race while tallying 234 strikeouts in 180 innings and massively outpitching his peripherals ERA-wise. San Diego got some mileage out of both Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, but Yu Darvish was limited to just 24 starts due to injury. Padres’ pitchers tied for the major league lead with a 3.73 ERA and were seventh in fWAR.
Overall, the Padres finished seventh in position player fWAR and seventh in pitching fWAR. They had the majors’ eighth-best run differential, which they underplayed by a shocking 10 games, and were the ninth-best team by BaseRuns (again, underplayed by nine games). It was an epic implosion in San Diego in 2023, but it wasn’t a failure of talent or of execution — just one of those wacky baseball things that tends to happen here and there. You could argue that a top-heavy was a problem, but that doesn’t actually bear itself out, especially as the pitching staff was pretty deep. Instead, they just got baseballed.
What did they do in the off-season?
San Diego found themselves in a tough spot this offseason, particularly with their rotation. Snell, Lugo, and Hader all hit free agency. The team also declined its club option on Michael Wacha in a cost-cutting move. With Soto headed to arbitration for a final time and due to a huge single-year contract, the Padres opted to deal him and outfielder Trent Grisham to the Yankees in exchange for pitchers Michael King, Jhony Brito, Randy Vasquez, Drew Thorpe and catcher Kyle Higashioka. King will join Darvish and Joe Musgrove in the rotation while Vasquez and Brito could compete for spots.
Hader recently signed with the Astros as a free agent. Snell remains unsigned as of this writing, but is unlikely to return to the Padres. San Diego did sign relievers Yuki Matsui and Go Woo-Suk. Matsui could see some save opportunities along with Robert Suarez. They also brought back Jurickson Profar, but he is coming off of a horrid 2023. San Diego also hired former Cardinals manager Mike Shildt to replace Melvin.
Where are they hoping to go?
The Padres still have talent, but this feels like a roster that is in transition. Tatis just turned 25 and is a great starting piece for any franchise. There has been rumblings that the team considered trading Kim this offseason and were also interested in moving the money owed to Jake Cronenworth. San Diego would probably like to compete, but in an NL West that features a World Series favorite in the Dodgers and a young and upcoming team like the Diamondbacks, that may be a tall task. Shildt will be tasked with trying to galvanize a clubhouse that hasn’t been the most cohesive unit over the last two seasons. That was the hope when Melvin was hired as well, but it never materialized.
Currently, this looks like the third best team in the division and could possibly slip to fourth depending on what the Giants do between now and Opening Day. If they elect to move Kim and if injuries were to strike in the rotation, things could get much worse quickly. Given their salary-cutting, it seems unlikely that San Diego will make any late additions, but if they do, two-thirds of their outfield is basically empty right now, and Jake Cronenworth is miscast as a first baseman. The bullpen also looks somewhat soft.
Braves 2023 head-to-head
The Braves had their hands full with the Padres in 2023, going 3-4 in the seven games between the two clubs. Atlanta was thoroughly outplayed by San Diego in their home-opening series at Truist Park where they dropped three of four and were outscored 25-14. Atlanta answered back by taking two of three in San Diego a couple of weeks later.
The Braves won’t see the Padres until May 17 when they come to Truist Park for a four-game series. Atlanta will make the return trip to Petco Park on July 12-14 before heading into the All-Star Break.
