2024 Six Nations predictions, rugby betting tips & odds

Les Bleus have been given the nod ahead of defending champions Ireland, who won only their fourth Grand Slam last year, with the two nations someway clear of England on the majority of gambling sites.

That’s despite a renewed sense of belief among English rugby fans after an unexpected run to the World Cup semi-finals. However, England’s recent Six Nations performances have left a lot to be desired and Steve Borthwick’s side still have plenty to prove.

The most settled side in this year’s Six Nations, Scotland, are 14/1 outsiders to win a first title since the old Five Nations, while an inexperienced Wales team are as big as 40/1 with betting sites.

Bringing up the rear is Italy, on a run of eight successive Wooden Spoons, but with a new coach in situ and an exciting, young squad to call upon, there's a sense of optimism amongst the Azzurri. 

It shapes up to be a competitive Six Nations, but one that may well end with the trophy going back across the English Channel to France.

French can banish World Cup bleus

France failed in its attempt to win its first World Cup last year, going out at the quarter-final stage to eventual winners South Africa, and head coach Fabian Galthie has a job on his hands to pick up his players.

That job is made tougher by Dupont deciding to miss the tournament, while first-choice fly-half Romain Ntamack remains out of action through injury.

But, as previously mentioned, nearly every team is missing one or two big names and in the case of France, they have the strength in depth to cope with their absences.

Maxime Lucu comes in at scrum-half for Dupont having been ripping it up with Bordeaux this season and is blessed to be working with a heavyweight pack and the best bunch of backs in the tournament.

Bordeaux team-mate Damian Penaud is arguably the best winger in the northern hemisphere right now, while Gael Fickou and Jonathan Danty have proven an effective midfield combination.

Losing Dupont, who has been voted the best player in the tournament three of the last four years, is a blow but there’s still a lot to like about France, who also have the advantage of playing three games at home.

Home won’t be Paris this year due to preparations for this summer's Olympic Games, but taking the show on the road may help France regather that momentum they had in the lead up to the World Cup.

Les Bleus open up in Marseille against Ireland in what’s likely to be a key title indicator. Victory for either side will be massive in putting them on the path to the title and restoring faith after World Cup disappointment.

Ireland’s loss of Sexton is arguably bigger than Dupont’s absence with no obvious successor to the nation’s all-time leading point scorer.

Jack Crowley has inherited the number 10 shirt but is inexperienced. His goal kicking accuracy for Munster is also a worry, while Ireland’s win rate without Sexton in recent years is a concern. 

Not having Sexton around will take some getting used to, but the rest of the team remains a class act, boasting arguably the best pack in the Six Nations. That may not be enough for Ireland to defend the title for only the second time in Six Nations history, but they should push France close. 

Could anyone end the duopoly France and Ireland have had on the top two spots for the last two years? It seems unlikely with Scotland continuously failing to break through the glass ceiling to become title contenders, while Wales and Italy look miles off it.

England’s hopes have been raised by a strong World Cup showing, where they struck upon a winning formula, and have been handed a kind start to the Six Nations, starting in Rome against Italy and then taking on Wales at home. 

But they are without their talisman Farrell, while injuries amongst the backs have hindered Borthwick's preparations. 

It’s also worth remembering that they’ve won just six of their last 15 Six Nations games and will be missing eight players from the starting line-up that pushed South Africa so close in the World Cup semi-finals.

Having been hammered 53-10 by France a year ago, England likely still have a long way to go before being ready to challenge the champions-elect. 

Ramos ready to roll again

Favourites for the title, France also dominant the individual honours on rugby betting sites with Penaud the market leader to be the top try scorer, while Thomas Ramos is expected to the favourite to score the most points for a second year running.

Of the two, backing Ramos appeals more, the Toulouse full-back having come within five points of breaking Jonny Wilkinson’s record for points in a single tournament when scoring 84 in 2023.

He went on to finish second in the points scoring charts at the World Cup, one point behind Farrell, who played a game more.

With Farrell and Sexton gone, the competition to Ramos has diminished significantly, especially with Scotland, Ireland and Wales having doubts over their goal kickers. 

With England having the potential to chop and change who wears the No 10 shirt and Italy not potent enough to be a factor, Ramos may go back-to-back in the point scoring competition.

Big worries for Wales

Six Nations champions in 2021, Welsh rugby has endured a dramatic decline since that success and their run to the World Cup quarter-finals may prove a flash in the pan.

The transition away from a special age of talent hasn't been helped by major financial issues and injuries to key players, leaving Warren Gatland with a young, inexperienced group to work with. 

Gatland has some massive holes to fill in the front row and at fly-half, leaving Wales in danger of collecting their first Wooden Spoon in 21 years.

They might have three games at home but gone are the days when Wales can be inked in for wins over Scotland and Italy in Cardiff.

Wales have won just one game in each of the last two editions of the Six Nations and this raw squad, deprived of match-winners such as Dan Biggar and Louis Rees Zammit, will do well to better that total. 

Gesi getting set for breakout 6N

After a disastrous World Cup, Italy are keen to start afresh under new head coach Gonzalo Quesada. The former Stade Francais boss is expected to bring some pragmatism to the Azzurri’s unstructured play, but he’d do well to keep their exciting backline involved as much as possible. 

Ange Capuozzo and Monty Ioane are excellent finishers and they could be joined in the backs by the lethal Simone Gesi, who made his debut in the Six Nations last year but missed out on the World Cup. 

Since then, Gesi has been in fantastic form for club side Zebre, scoring 11 tries in 12 matches this season having bagged 11 in 13 games in the previous campaign.

Get free bets for the Six Nations

This Six Nations kicks off on Friday night when France takes in Ireland, and several new betting sites are running special offers in conjunction with the start of the tournament.

For example, Parimatch have boosted their price on England to win the Six Nations from 6/1 to 100/1. To take advantage of the offer, you’ll need to open an account with Parimatch and opt in to the promotion. 

Bettors will then need to make a minimum £5 deposit via debit card or Apple Pay before playing a maximum £1 bet on England to win the Six Nations.

If England go on to win the tournament, you’ll receive £2 in cash and £99 in free bets, while signing up with Parimatch will give you access to their UK casino.

Make sure to read the terms and conditions before signing up and if you do have a bet on the Six Nations, or any other sport, please remember to gamble responsibly.

Chris is an experienced sports betting writer who has worked with most major bookmakers and national media outlets, such as Racing Post and ITN. He covers a wide range of sports with his favourites being NFL, rugby, football and Formula 1.