3 bets for Ohio State vs. Michigan that don’t involve the fuzzy moneyline: Tyler Shoemaker’s ‘Betting the Buckeyes’

COLUMBUS, Ohio - This Ohio State vs. Michigan game is really hard, obviously, because whether it’s the Connor Stalions stuff, or whether it’s because Jim Harbaugh hasn’t been on the sidelines due to that, or JJ. McCarthy being banged up.

I don’t know what the reason is, but I’m having a really hard time kind of handicapping this game because my normal formula, taking season long metrics, I project Michigan minus-6.5, but I’ve been digging deep on the numbers this week.

The eye test says Michigan hasn’t looked the same. Now, they’ve also played better teams, so I wanted to look at the opponent-adjusted metrics over the last month. So I’m going to hit you with some stats. I normally don’t do this, but I think it’s worth pointing out this week.

If I just weigh the last month a little more heavily, I would project Ohio State minus-3. That’s how much of a difference there is in their performance over the last month compared to the first two months of the season.

• In tempo and opponent-adjusted net EPA, Ohio State is third, Michigan is 36th.
• In net points per play Ohio State is first, Michigan is 18th.
• In net yards per point, Ohio State is first, Michigan is 18th, so there’s a huge disparity in how these teams have played recently.

Ohio State’s kind of surging and trending the right direction, and Michigan’s kind of going the opposite way. So even though my season-long number says Michigan -6.5, one thing I’ve learned as a bettor over the last few years is in rivalry games is that you’ve got to kind of dig a little bit deeper this week than you normally would when handicapping a game. When I dig deeper, it screams Ohio State at me.

We definitely missed the boat last week on TreVeyon Henderson, who had a phenomenal game. You can bet this week him rushing for 83.5 yards at -115 odds; or you can do his alternate rushing yards over 100 at +188, so almost 2/1 that he goes for 100 yards or more.

That’s where I’m going to go here: TreVeyon Henderson over 100 rushing yards at +188.

As for some other props, I like one guy we haven’t talked about yet. It’s Cade Stover, our guy. We forgot about him, but he’s back.

I like Cade Stover anytime touchdown at +210.

They’ve used him in the red zone quite a bit as a weapon. He almost had the touchdown last year until Mike Sainristil just ripped it out of his hands in the end zone. I think Stover gets a touchdown this year.

Also, I was going to play the Ohio State Team Total over 20.5. But then the more I dug in on that particular angle, betting the Ohio State team total over was like -105 or -110; or you can bet Ohio State over 2 1/2 touchdowns at +120.

So you’re basically betting, for all intents and purposes, the same thing. But you’re getting +120 on this bet. So I’m going to go Ohio State over 2 1/2 touchdowns for the game at +120 odds.

The Washington vs Washington State over/under, it’s ticked down a little bit, but I think it’s still too high. It’s down to 68, but I still like the under. I project that at 59, so I’m going to play the Washington/Washington State under 68 (play to 67).

U Mass and U Conn are playing, and UMass is a 2 1/2-point underdog. Every formula that I look at says they should be favored. So I’m going to play U Mass +2.5 against U Conn.

Wrapping up my bets for the weekend:

• TreVeyon Henderson Over 100 Rushing Yards (Alternate line) (+188)
• Cade Stover Anytime Touchdown (+210)
• Ohio State Over 2.5 Touchdowns (+120)
• Washington vs. Washington State Under 68
• U Mass +2.5 vs. UConn.

Ohio State bets: 15-13

Best bets: 9-13

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Tyler Shoemaker started betting on sports in 2017, trying hit 10-team parlays every college football Saturday. His hobby quickly turned into a competitive obsession once he learned some betting fundamentals – including the unlikelihood of ever hitting a 10-team parlay.

The idea of his T Shoe Index (TSI) was planted.

Tyler has a bachelor’s and a master’s degree, neither of which is in anything stats or data-related, so he started with a pen and notebook and math. In 2018, those notebooks eventually turned into spreadsheets that he manually populated, which led to his first opportunity to become the unofficial sports betting expert of cleveland.com’s “Buckeye Talk” podcast..

Last season, he cashed 60% (24-16) of his best bets. He hit on 80% (8-2) of his Ohio State bets and was profitable 38% (5-8) on his touchdown-or-more money line upset picks.

This season, he will share his insights in a weekly post, “Betting the Buckeyes.”

If you or a loved one has questions and needs to talk to a professional about gambling, call the Ohio Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-589-9966 or the National Council on Program Gambling Helpline (NCPG) at 1-800-522-4700 or visit 1800gambler.net