76ers vs Celtics NBA Odds, Picks and Predictions

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01 May 2023

76ers vs Celtics NBA Odds, Picks and Predictions

The Philadelphia 76ers are likely to be without Joel Embiid in Game 1, but that doesn't mean they're without hope against the Boston Celtics. Our NBA betting picks expect a certain role player to step up tonight.

Wilt Chamberlain and Bill Russell. Dr. J and Larry Bird. Allen Iverson and Paul Pierce. The Philadelphia 76ers and the Boston Celtics have one of the most storied rivalries in the entire NBA, and that rivalry resumes Monday, May 1 as the two teams square off in the Eastern Conference semifinals at TD Garden.

The Celtics have had the better of this matchup recently, and with news that Joel Embiid is doubtful for Game 1, they’ll be looking to run up the score before the Cameroonian NBA MVP candidate can return.

Our NBA picks and predictions for Game 1 of 76ers vs Celtics are shining a spotlight on the unsung hero of the first round, Tobias Harris, and are banking on his strong play continuing on Monday.

76ers vs Celtics Game 1 best odds

76ers vs Celtics Game 1 picks and predictions

The news of Joel Embiid’s LCL sprain is devastating, but there’s no time for crying in the playoffs. The Philadelphia 76ers must go on with what they have. They have to pivot, and pivot fast. That means getting more out of James Harden and Tyrese Maxey obviously, but more than anything it means asking Tobias Harris to step up and play at a star or near-star level.

Harris is often the forgotten man on the 76ers. He doesn’t have a standout skill that’s on par with Embiid’s 12-foot jumper, Harden’s step-back, or Maxey’s uncanny ability to influence the game with his high-energy plays. He’s just a steady presence on both ends, capable of hitting shots and generating his own. As a result, when the other three pillars of Philadelphia’s offense are going well, he mostly fades into the background.

But with Embiid almost certain to miss Game 1, and to return in a limited role whenever he does play, they’ll desperately need Harris’ production to have any chance against the Boston Celtics. There’s good reason to think he’s up for the challenge too.

Harris was arguably the best player of the first round series between the 76ers and the Brooklyn Nets. He quietly averaged 20.3 points per game on 56.7% from the field, and 57.1% from downtown. He also didn’t miss a free throw. While the Celtics are a superior defense to the Nets, their personnel present similar challenges. Harris was unbothered by Brooklyn’s length and layers of perimeter defenders, even in the Game 4 that Embiid missed.

Those numbers aren’t an anomaly either. In the 76 games that Harris has played for the 76ers without Embiid in the lineup (almost an entire season’s worth of data) he has averaged 20.6 points on 49.2/36.6/85.9 shooting splits. That’s not quite all-star production and efficiency, but it’s also not far off from it.

Harris isn’t an elite scorer, but he has a deep bag of moves. He has honed his footwork and jab step to work in isolation, he’s comfortable on catch and shoots, working with screens and without, and his floater has been money to start the postseason. Having options is one of the keys to playoff success, and Harris has plenty.

Doc Rivers is not a renowned playoff coach, but he always coaches better when at a disadvantage roster wise. Part of his talent is squeezing the most out of players thrust into bigger roles and putting them in a position to succeed.

Rivers and Harris have a history that stretches back to their time with the L.A. Clippers, when it seemed that Harris might knock on the door of true stardom. That ceiling may be out of reach, but I believe Harris is more than capable of stepping up when his number gets called in Game 1.

My best bet: Harris Over 16.5 points (-124)

76ers vs Celtics same-game parlay

James Harden Under 21.5 Points (+105)

James Harden Over 8.5 assists (-120)

James Harden 3+ 3-pointers made (-125)

This parlay is all about the role Harden is likely to play in Game 1 in the absence of Embiid.

Harden had an efficient first round against the Brooklyn Nets, but he struggled to gain separation against Brooklyn’s long wing defenders. He only shot nine free throws in the entire series, and Boston’s defenders should be even more problematic. That should make it difficult for Harden to be a volume scorer in Game 1.

But Harden’s step-back remains unguardable, and with no reliable driving lanes and no Embiid, I’m expecting Harden to take a lot of shots from deep. Harden will also be shouldering the entire playmaking load without Embiid in the game, which is why I like the assist prop as well.

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76ers vs Celtics Game 1 spread and Over/Under analysis

The Celtics opened as hefty seven-point favorites, largely based on the uncertainty around Embiid’s availability. More information has since come to light, both from Rivers suggesting that his status was doubtful, as well as Shams Charania reporting the sprain is worse than a Grade 1 LCL. That has seen this line balloon to as much as -10.5.

Embiid is nearly a lock to miss this game, and perhaps the series. Even if he does play at some point, he’ll have been able to do zero basketball activity to stay in rhythm. If the Celtics have any real worry here, it’s the potential for a letdown against a Philadelphia team missing their best player. But the Celtics have had Philly's number lately, with Philadelphia going 0-5 against the spread in their last five meetings.

There are significant differences among sportsbooks for Monday’s total, ranging between 215 on the high end and 213.5 on the low end.

It’s hard to see how the 76ers will hope to defend against Boston’s interior attack without Embiid. The Celtics’ drives will inevitably suck in some of the 76ers’ perimeter defenders, leaving Boston quality open shots from three. The Celtics' offense lives and dies by their ability to generate open threes, and there’s every reason to believe they’ll be able to them against Philadelphia.

The Over is 4-0 in the Celtics' last four games, and given their tendency to give inconsistent efforts when they believe they should easily win a game, I think betting the Over as high as 215 is reasonable.