‘A JV tour’: Why betting markets are down on LIV golfers’ chances at The Masters

The Masters begins this week with 18 competitors from the breakaway LIV Golf tour competing in the same event against their PGA Tour counterparts, many of whom are outspoken against the rival circuit. And the Saudi Arabia-backed LIV golfers will find it’s not just the establishment that has given them the cold shoulder — the betting markets are as well.

Past Masters winners and other majors title holders like Dustin Johnson and Bubba Watson, who broke away from the PGA Tour to join the controversial circuit, are offered at higher odds to win the event than similar counterparts on the traditional circuit.

At play here is a betting market that does not trust that the 54-hole format, shotgun starts, no cuts and guaranteed compensation of LIV provides the competitive environment necessary to forge major winners. The accessibility of LIV broadcasts is another factor, as is that the tension between LIV and PGA Tour players might affect play (that presumably could hinder each side in the golf civil war).

“The market pricing that you’re seeing now for the Masters 2023 is a direct consequence of what’s happening week after week on the PGA Tour versus what’s happening on the LIV Tour,” said Kevin Lawler, head of trading at PointsBet. “The PGA (Tour) players are constantly pushing to win titles, they’re constantly striving to finish as high as they possibly can.”

The LIV golfers, he added, are “not in these high-pressure situations for really important titles, week after week, they’re playing for money, that they’ve already got a pile they signed off on.”

Rex Beyers, head of wagering for sports book PlayUp USA, termed LIV a “JV tour.”

“The market pretty clearly is saying, ‘We don’t give you much of a chance at all,'” he wrote in a direct message.

Many of the LIV golfers have been lured away from the PGA Tour by reported eight- and nine-figure signing bonuses. The PGA Tour has banned these players, which is the subject of an antitrust lawsuit between the tours.

The effect of that money, though, has the oddsmakers convinced LIV golfers will struggle because they are handsomely rewarded, win or lose. Only two of the top 10 golfers based on odds are LIV golfers. According to BetMGM, Cameron Smith, the most recent major winner is at +2000, and Johnson, the 2020 Masters winner, is at +2500.  In betting, a +2000 means 20-to-1, or the bettor wins $2,000 for a $100 bet for Smith to win the event, or in Johnson’s case $2,500. The slimmest odds are PGA Tour stalwarts Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler at +700.

“The troubling part of it is you have many previous Masters winners that are, I wouldn’t say they are being disrespected, but for Dustin Johnson to not be in the top 10 of favorites in the Masters is pretty shocking,” said Max Bichsel, vice president at Gambling.com Group, When Bichsel was speaking, Johnson was outside the top 10, but his odds improved and currently is at 10th on BetMGM’s odds board.

“I’m very intrigued to see how the LIV players, after seemingly not playing a lot of tough, rigorous golf against the best players in the world, what that would look like,” Bichsel added. “And it’s something we haven’t seen in professional golf, really ever.”

The most famous player to go to LIV is arguably Phil Mickelson, whose candid comments about the nature of the Saudi backers drew intense criticism. His odds are +20,000. Brooks Koepka, an LIV golfer who has won four majors, is listed at +3,300.

Because this is the first event LIV and PGA golfers will square off in since last year’s Open Championship, whether there is tension or outright hostility expressed between the sides is something to watch.

“There is a fair chance that some of the LIV guys could endure a little hostility at the Champions dinner, on the range, practice green, during practice rounds, the par-3 tournament,” Beyers wrote. “By the time Thursday rolls around, who knows what will be going on? It’s an X-factor that is tough to handicap but cannot be totally dismissed. Will patrons actually boo Phil Mickelson, which would have been considered unthinkable a year ago?”

PointsBet is even planning to offer odds on whether a LIV golfer will win the Masters. Lawler said the odds would be in the +800 range for the bet.

Bichsel for one said the long odds for LIV golfers are misplaced. These golfers are pros, he said, adding that, unlike the other three majors that rotate among courses, the Masters is always at Augusta National. That means the golfers are very familiar with the terrain.

“Cameron Smith, Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, these are all major championship winners. If they have to go tee it up at Augusta next week, I think it’s safe to say they’ve kind of been there and done that before,” Bichsel said. “And I fully expect them to compete. And so that’s why when you look at kind of what the odds look like and some of these pricings, there are some very attractive players where if they were playing a normal PGA tour schedule, and were in the form you’d expect them to be, you would suspect that their odds would be much shorter than what is currently published.”

And what if a LIV golfer wins the Masters, a prospect that LIV commissioner Greg Norman said would lead to a celebration at the 18th green by all the 18 LIV golfers at Augusta? In that case, the odds for future majors would likely not come in so slanted toward the PGA Tour denizens.

“For the PGA Championship and U.S. Open coming up in May and June,” Bichsel concluded, “it would significantly adjust.”

(Top photo of Dustin Johnson: Andrew Redington / Getty Images)