A Path to the Division Crown: September Edition
Two weeks ago, I wrote an article entitled "A Path to the Division Crown". It was about what the Cardinals need to do to win their first division title since 2019. I want to revisit it as August is coming to a close and the playoff picture becomes clearer.
The Cardinals are 1.5 games ahead of the Brewers in the Central Division. They have only 4 more games against each other for the rest of season. The Cardinals won 2 of 3 games in August against the Crew. If they can win against other teams, they will probably take the division title.
The Cardinals have won 14 out of 18 games in August. They won against the Brewers, Rockies, Reds, and D-Backs. The current record is 75-54. If they take 2 of 3 games against Cincinnati, they will finish August 76-55.
The Cardinals are playing phenomenal baseball recently. The Cardinals have a 5-game lead with 31 games to play. They have one more west coast swing against the Dodgers and Padres and two 2- game series against Brewers. The Brewers are currently 68-59 with 2 games left in the month. Their record would have been 10-9 if they had won all their games.
The Cardinals have to play Chicago Cubs, Washington, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, Cincinnati, San Diego, Los Angeles Dodgers, and Pittsburgh in September/October. The Brewers have the East, with 6 games against the Yankees and Mets.
Brewers have a difficult remaining schedule in September/October. Cardinals are currently second in baseball in wRC+ at 117 and their collective wOBA is .333. Since the All-Star Break, they are 25-10 and have won .714. The Cardinals have one of the best offenses in the league.
The Cardinals are 4th in the NL in runs allowed and 10th for FIP and fWAR for pitchers. Since the trade deadline, the Cardinals have been in top 10 for both F IP and FWAR. Their ERA is below average. The Cardinals hold a +126 run differential over the Brewers. Cardinals' expected W/L record should put them two more wins up against the Milwaukee Brewers than the current gap.
The Cardinals' worst month of the season was July. They went 11-13, a 46% win percentage. With 31 games remaining, they have a record of 89-73. To tie them, the Brewers would have to go 21-14.
The Brewers are 92-70 and the Cardinals are 17-14. The Cardinals have a better chance of winning the division. The Brewers' best month is 68.2%, and they would need to go 24-11 to tie the Cards.
Fangraphs predicts that Cardinals and Brewers will win 57% of the rest of their games.
The Cardinals have a 90.7% chance of winning the division. They have won 94-68 and 88-74 in August.
