Adam Blencowe: irreverent handicapper whose ratings aren’t irrelevant

Listen to Adam Blencowe on any of Racing and Sports’ podcasts, and it takes only a couple of minutes to realise the Australian analyst doesn’t take himself seriously, but he’s all business when it comes to assessing the performances of gallopers.

With little more than a week to the Longines Hong Kong International Races (HKIR) at Sha Tin, this week’s Tongue Tie Off reveals the expert views of Blencowe, the irreverent handicapper whose ratings are anything but irrelevant, on this year’s four mega-money HKIR contests and the HKIR non-runner who’s his favourite horse of all time.

What was your introduction to racing?

My old man was a bookmaker, so that’s how I got into racing. I used to study racing form on Racing and Sports’ website while I was working late at night betting on European soccer games as a sports bookie. That’s when I got into European racing – and Law & Order – because you’ve got to do something to stay awake at 3am. My dad pointed out to me Canberra was home to Racing and Sports, and maybe it might be able to offer me some work during daylight hours. So I emailed Gary Crispe, and he gave me a job marking up old Sportsmans with margins and other comments. Gary taught me how to handicap horses, and the rest, as they say, is history. That was 17 years ago.

Who’s your favourite horse of all time?

Takeover Target. He’s the horse I liked beyond just betting. There was the local connection – I’m from Canberra, and he was from Queanbeyan – as well. I used to go to trackwork. I remember him ripping around Queanbeyan at a million miles an hour, and his trainer, Joe Janiak, didn’t realise they’d cored the course. There were big holes in the track, and there was Takeover Target, one of the world’s best sprinters, dicing with death. He came back, walked in and topped it all off with an early morning bourbon and coke. Now that’s a racehorse. There are plenty of premium thoroughbreds I’ve liked, but none of them have been as cool as Takeover Target was.

How do you assess the Group One Hong Kong Sprint (1,200m)?

In theory, Highfield Princess brings top-flight European sprint form, but I backed Blue Point – a champion on that continent – to win the 2018 Group One Chairman’s Sprint Prize (1,200m), and they’re still looking for him at the Sha Tin corner. Her profile is bizarre in that she went from being a Listed mare at the beginning of her five-year-old season to a Group One mare at the end of it. She ran to her peak rating in four of her five runs during her 2022 purple patch, but this year, she’s only run to it once in seven starts. For her to turn around her form in Hong Kong this month seems optimistic.

With Lucky Sweynesse this term, there have been the weights he has carried and the shapes of the races he has contested. Slow paces on quick ground make it hard work to put margins on your opponents. On Racing and Sports’ podcasts, I use the analogy of playing golf off the black tees or playing mini golf. He wants to play off the black tees in a high-pressure race because that would enable him to put some shots between him and the chasing pack. He’s running OK. If he runs well, they’re dead.

What’s your take on the Group One Hong Kong Mile?

Golden Sixty being first up isn’t a concern because he’s been at his best or close enough to it in his past fresh runs. California Spangle was atrocious the other day without an excuse. On ratings, the pick of the international horses is Tribalist, but it’s a completely different ballgame for him in Hong Kong. Golden Sixty wins mile races in about 93 seconds. Tribalist typically wins mile races in about 100 seconds. Last start, he won one in 116 seconds. Namur comes into the event off back-to-back ratings that would usually earn a Hong Kong Mile placing. She’s in career-best nick, and it’s believable she could run another personal best, so she’s probably the biggest danger to the champ.

How do you see the Group One Hong Kong Cup (2,000m)?

This is the best race. This is great. There wouldn’t be much between Romantic Warrior, Prognosis and Luxembourg. The Cox Plate attracted a good field, but it was a field full of good milers. Not only is the Hong Kong Cup stronger in terms of top-end depth, its top-end depth is stronger over 2,000m. Romantic Warrior faced milers stretching out to 2,000m in the Cox Plate. The Hong Kong Cup represents a tougher assignment for him.

Prognosis should have frightened Romantic Warrior in April’s Group One QEII Cup (2,000m), but Zac Purton picked up what Racing and Sports’ podcasts call an STI – Slaughtered to Instruction – that afternoon and left his mount with too much to do late in the piece. Prognosis went back to Japan, won the Sapporo Kinen (2,000m), which might be the strongest Group Two race on the planet, and then ran his guts out behind the world’s highest-rated galloper, Equinox, in the Group One Tenno Sho Autumn (2,000m). He’s every bit as talented as Romantic Warrior is.

Aidan O’Brien hasn’t won a Hong Kong Cup. However, apart from Magical, he hasn’t taken a horse with a rating anything like as good as that of Luxembourg’s to it. He’s run in the mid-120s multiple times. He’s beaten Onesto and Bay Bridge to win Group Ones. He ran up to his peak rating behind Auguste Rodin last time out. He’s playing away from home at the end of the year, and while you have to allow for that, you’re likely to get the right odds to bet.

Finally, what’s your view on the Group One Hong Kong Vase (2,400m)?

Lebensstil is a fast horse, and he’s fast enough to win the Hong Kong Vase for Japan. He’s only raced beyond 1,800m once in his six starts, but he beat the horse who was odds on in the Japanese Derby, Sol Oriens, in that Group Two event over 2,200m, running what I call time over time – fast splits over the top of a fast time. He should get 2,400m, and the quality of the Hong Kong Vase field falls away fairly quickly after him. Warm Heart is OK, but she’s not a superstar. Shahryar is a good horse with the race’s best peak rating, but he’s low variance these days. Shahryar sets the standard required to win the Hong Kong Vase, but Lebensstil likely runs something like that benchmark number or an even better one. He’s the best ante-post bet in the HKIR features.