AFC Championship Chiefs vs. Ravens odds: prop bets, picks, predictions for a Super Bowl qualifier

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The AFC Championship is coming to Baltimore for the first time since 1971 when the underdog and reigning champion Kansas City Chiefs square off with the top-seed Ravens for the opportunity to play in Super Bowl 58.

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Until last week’s divisional round victory over the Buffalo Bills, Patricks Mahomes played in 15 postseason games, and none were away from Arrowhead Stadium. With questions looming about how Mahomes’ performance may decline on the road, he delivered 215 yards and two touchdowns.

It wasn’t Mahomes’ flashiest performance because Kansas City ran roughshod on Buffalo, gashing the defense for 146 rushing yards. Isiah Pacheco led the way with 97 yards, 6.5 yards per carry, and one touchdown.

The Chiefs’ defense successfully limited Josh Allen through the air, but the former Wyoming Cowboy and other Bills’ ball carriers had no problem moving the ball on the ground. The Bills combined for an eye-popping 182 rushing yards and two scores.

In the other AFC divisional-round game, the Ravens gained 229 rushing yards and two touchdowns in a 34-10 thumping of the Houston Texans. No team ran for more yards per game than Baltimore, and finding a way to limit the Ravens’ strength is at the top of Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s to-do list.

While the Chiefs have a clear disadvantage defensively, the Ravens also have a tall order in stopping Pacheco. Baltimore’s 4.5 yards allowed per carry is eighth-worst in the NFL, and Pacheco will be up to the challenge of matching the Ravens’ physicality.

The 24-year-old has rushed for 186 yards and two touchdowns in two postseason matchups and has helped open things up for Mahomes in the passing game. Pacheco’s production has also left less need for Mahomes to rely on the Chiefs’ inconsistent WRs.

In his postseason career, Mahomes has a 38:7 touchdown-to-interception ratio and is best when the lights are brightest. Jackson’s playoff passing stats aren’t as favorable, but he’s eclipsed 100 rushing yards in four of five games.

Mahomes and Travis Kelce made history last week when the pair connected for their 16th postseason touchdown, passing Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski for the most between a QB-receiver duo.

Kelce had a down season by his standards, reeling in 93 receptions for 984 yards and five touchdowns. It was the former Cincinnati Bearcat’s lowest yardage output since 2015 and his lowest touchdown total since 2019.

He strung together consecutive 70+ yard games in the wild card and divisional rounds and found the end zone twice vs. the Bills. Kelce may have struggled in the regular season, but any time his touchdown-scoring odds are plus money, it deserves attention.

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