AFC North Betting Preview 2023: Futures Picks & Predictions for All Teams
With the 2023 NFL campaign just around the corner, Sportsbook Review is helping you get ready for the season with division previews that focus on the best betting angles within all eight groupings. Read on for our breakdown of a competitive AFC North division.
The depth of the AFC North is unlike any other division in the NFL. While other groupings like the AFC East might feature more bonafide Super Bowl contenders, the AFC North projects to be the most competitive with four potential playoff contenders trading punches throughout the upcoming season.
After winning back-to-back AFC North crowns, the Cincinnati Bengals enter the year as the preseason favorites. But with their quarterback Joe Burrow sidelined due to a calf injury, is there value in fading the favorites this season? If so, who should we expect to emerge from this battled-tested division?
NFL betting sites (pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
AFC North betting preview 2023
Bengals to win AFC North (+160 via BetMGM, Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
The truth is, my numbers don't show any value on preseason AFC North odds at this time. Because this division figures to be so competitive, all the prices are trading shorter than what they should be.
As a result, the best course of action would to be buy the dip on any of these teams if they slip up during the season. The Bengals might actually get out to a slow start due to Joe Burrow's injury, particularly given their schedule during the first few weeks. I like the idea of taking advantage of a discount in their division odds if they do struggle out of the gate.
However, if you're forced to place a bet today, Cincinnati's +160 price tag is close to my fair value of +174 to win the AFC North. As explained in my Bengals betting preview, I do think this team ultimately prevails to win a third straight division title ahead of another deep postseason run.
Bengals Under 3.5 division wins (+140 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
No, this isn't a hedge bet and doesn't contradict my statement that the Bengals will win the AFC North. Cincinnati can still win the division without recording a 4-2 clip against its division foes.
In fact, the Bengals just did that last year when they went 3-3 within this division. That means three of their four defeats came at the hands of teams that know them the best. Cincinnati is actually 8-10 against its AFC North rivals since Burrow was drafted in 2020.
More importantly, Burrow's calf injury could come into play to start the season while the quarterback remains sidelined. We don't know when he will make his season debut or how effective he will be after missing most of the preseason.
The Bengals open the year with a road test against the Cleveland Browns before welcoming the Baltimore Ravens to town in Week 2. A 1-1 clip (or worse) in those first two weeks could make it more difficult for the Bengals to finish at least 4-2 against their AFC North opponents, so I'm comfortable taking this plus-money offering at DraftKings when a shop like Caesars was wise enough to take this market down.
my column on three potential bets to make while Burrow remains sidelined with an injury.
Najee Harris to lead the AFC North in rushing yards (+550 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐
As mentioned in our Cleveland Browns betting preview, I am betting on Nick Chubb to have a huge year now that Kareem Hunt is out of the picture, particularly in the rushing TD department. But his rushing prices are inflated in the AFC North market, especially considering the quality of running backs within this division.
Chubb is -250 to lead the AFC North in total regular-season rushing yards, which is certainly too steep considering how much injuries can derail a season. Instead, I like the idea of betting on the No. 2 option in this field given how much the market has soured on the former first-round draft pick.
Harris is set to enter his third in the season in the NFL, surpassing the 1,000-yard mark in both campaigns. He finished 59 yards below Chubb as a rookie before coming up nearly 500 yards short last season.
The Steelers bolstered their offensive line in the offseason, which should pave the way for Harris' best season yet. I think we are getting a discount on Harris in all markets similar to how everyone viewed Josh Jacobs before last year, a comparison I made in my Pittsburgh Steelers betting preview. Let's take advantage as bettors.
Zay Flowers to lead rookies in receiving yards (+600 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐
Perhaps I'm falling for the camp hype, but early reports have been extremely high on Baltimore's rookie receiver Zay Flowers. Peter King called him the best rookie he's seen in camp, which bodes well for the 2023 first-round pick out of Boston College.
You can get a better payout by wagering on Flowers to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, as he's trading as long as +3000 via FanDuel. But that market is too top-heavy between Bijan Robinson and the first-round quarterbacks.
Looking at the rookie receivers, Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seattle Seahawks), Jordan Addison (Minnesota Vikings), and Quentin Johnston (Los Angeles Chargers) all have better odds to lead the rookie class in receiving yards. Yet none of those three rookies will be the top option in their respective receiver rooms this season.
Flowers could conceivably step in as the top receiver for the Ravens. Both Odell Beckham Jr. and Rashod Bateman are coming back from injury. With new offensive coordinator Todd Monken calling plays, we could see the Ravens utilize the speed and playmaking ability of Flowers right away in his rookie campaign.
If that's the case, this +600 ticket would certainly have some life.
Here are our best NFL betting sites:
(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
