AL East 2023 preview: Yankees, Blue Jays, Rays among contenders
The Post’s Joel Sherman previews the AL East:
1. Toronto Blue Jays
O/U wins: 91.5
Key player: Daulton Varsho. The Blue Jays had 351 fewer left-handed plate appearances than any team last season. Their overall outfield had a negative Runs Against Average. Trading with Arizona for the left fielder Varsho and signing free agent Kevin Kiermaier not only brought two lefty bats to the lineup, but also supplied Toronto with two high-end defenders. That will allow George Springer to move from center to right, where he should be better. Toronto also signed lefty-swinging Brandon Belt to DH. Kiermaier (hip) and Belt (knee) missed substantial time last year and they will turn 33 and 35, respectively, in April.
Player who’ll need to step up: Jose Berrios. The 1-2 rotation punch of Kevin Gausman and Alek Manoah is strong and Chris Bassitt should be a steady No. 3. The strength of the starting group revolves around what Toronto receives from arguably the most disappointing pitcher of 2022. After signing a seven-year, $122 million extension, Berrios translated high-end stuff into the highest ERA among qualified starters (5.23). Can the righty rebound?
Name you’ll get to know: Ricky Tiedemann. Toronto traded arguably its top prospect, catcher Gabriel Moreno, as the key to land Varsho. The Blue Jays have uneasy rotation depth with Berrios, Yusei Kikuchi and Mitch White handling the Nos. 4-5 spots. Can the lefty Tiedemann, just 20 and shut down during spring training for shoulder issues, become a factor this year?
Biggest question mark: Depth. Toronto addressed its lefty-hitting and defensive shortage, but with a couple of players who are physical red flags. Kikuchi and reliever Tim Mayza are the only two lefties on the staff. A few trades have thinned the farm system.
How it’ll go down: The AL East is deep and, thus, volatile. At least three teams can win it, and the Orioles and Red Sox are wild cards to barge into the conversation. The Blue Jays’ lineup top three of Springer, Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are all AL MVP top-10 possibilities and should lead a fierce attack.
2. Tampa Bay Rays
O/U wins: 88.5
Key player: Wander Franco. The Rays churn through pitching, yet remain an elite run-prevention unit annually. But Tampa Bay averaged the fewest runs per game (4.11) in the AL East last year. In part, that was because Franco (hamstring, quad, hamate bone) couldn’t stay healthy after signing the largest contract (11 years, $182 million) in franchise history. The switch-hitting shortstop just turned 22. He has the talent to be an impact player.
Player who’ll need to step up: Zach Eflin. The oft-injured righty totaled just 75 ²/₃ regular-season innings, then pitched out of the bullpen for the NL champ Phillies. Still, the Rays gave him their largest free-agent deal ever ($40 million for three years), believing his ability to induce weak contact will work well out of their pen with a strong defense behind him.
Name you’ll get to know: Curtis Mead. The Australian had a .922 OPS across Double-A and Triple-A last year. He is the kind of Swiss Army knife player (first, second and third base) Tampa Bay specializes in and he should be one of the first positional call-ups this year.
Biggest question mark: Is there enough offense? Franco, Randy Arozarena, Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe and Josh Lowe (if he makes the team) could form the nucleus of a strong offense around the rest of the Rays’ mix-and-match lineup. The key word: Could.
How it’ll go down: Even with Tyler Glasnow (oblique) unavailable to begin the season, Tampa Bay familiarly looks deep in pitching, headed by ace Shane McClanahan (sixth in the AL Cy Young balloting last year). The Rays are a sum-of-the-parts franchise that persistently maximizes their win totals.
3. New York Yankees
O/U wins: 94.5
Key player: DJ LeMahieu. Obviously, the main man is Aaron Judge and if anything were to befall him, then the Yankees would face 2023 peril. But the offense just works better when LeMahieu is healthy and brings his high-contact at-bats to the lineup and hits good pitching.
Player who’ll need to step up: Carlos Rodon. He will begin the season on the injured list. He was the Yankees’ big outside addition (six years, $162 million) in the offseason coming off of two huge seasons in which he was (at last) mainly healthy. Will he be the lefty A.J. Burnett — high-end stuff that doesn’t completely work in New York? Or will he be a co-ace to Gerrit Cole?
Name you’ll get to know: Will Warren. With all the interest and hype surrounding Jasson Dominguez, Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe, it feels like we know them all already. The Yankees have used their upper-level pitching prospects heavily in trades in recent years. For depth in 2023, they will need others to step up. Warren is a right-hander who has steadily risen in prestige and in trade requests.
Biggest question mark: How good are Peraza, Volpe and Oswaldo Cabrera? For a team with potential dead spots (Josh Donaldson, Aaron Hicks) and persistent injury concerns (LeMahieu, Giancarlo Stanton), the need for young impact instantly — especially with new rules making the value of middle-infield range and on-base speed more valuable — will be high for the Yankees. If the over/under for Peraza, Volpe and Cabrera is 45 homers and 45 steals, which way are you going?
How it’ll go down: The injury bug (Rodon, Harrison Bader, Tommy Kahnle, Frankie Montas, Lou Trivino) smacked hard during spring training. The Yankees are still short on lefty bats and now have worrisome pitching depth. It has never felt more vital for Cole and Judge to stay healthy and brilliant.
4. Baltimore Orioles
O/U wins: 77.5
Key player: Adley Rutschman. There were two 2022 seasons for the Orioles: They were 16-24 through May 20, the third worst record in the AL. Then Rutschman was summoned and Baltimore went 67-55, to finish three games out of the last wild-card spot. Their 83-79 overall record was their first winning mark since Buck Showalter’s 2016 club. The No. 1 pick in the 2019 draft, Rutschman is a switch-hitting catcher who excels on both sides of the ball, the kind of unicorn who begins to change a franchise’s fortunes.
Player who’ll need to step up: Grayson Rodriguez. The right-hander was dominating Triple-A and on the cusp of a call-up last season before incurring a lat strain. Arguably the game’s best pitching prospect, Rodriguez was a possibility to be in the rotation from the outset this year but will begin the season in Triple-A. The Orioles did not make a big-splash starter acquisition, as was generally expected, after their 2022 surprise contention. Instead, they are hoping new additions Kyle Gibson and Cole Irvin bring innings and steadiness. Rodriguez is their shot at an ace.
Name you’ll get to know: Gunnar Henderson. Rutschman, Rodriguez and Henderson are the cornerstones of the Orioles’ rebuilding. Henderson had a strong MLB cameo last year and is the consensus top prospect in MLB. The lefty-swinging third baseman is viewed as a five-tool, impact player.
Biggest question mark: Are they ready? The Orioles have clearly graduated from pushovers, but are they no-doubt contenders? They are counting on a lot of young talent and their overall depth could still be a challenge. They are on the right path, but will it take them to October as soon as 2023?
How it’ll go down: Of course, the playoffs are the goal. But if the Orioles left the 2023 season with confirmation that Rutschman, Rodriguez and Henderson will be stars and with one or two of them plus center fielder Cedric Mullins signed to extensions to suggest that is not just a temporary state, it would be a huge victory for the franchise.
5. Boston Red Sox
O/U wins: 78.5
Key player: Chris Sale. This rotation would be so much more trustworthy if it were 2017, when Corey Kluber won the AL Cy Young, Sale finished second and James Paxton had his best season. Alas, it is 2023, which means Paxton already is hurt again, Kluber is getting an Opening Day nod by default and Sale, who will turn 34 on Opening Day, is trying again to demonstrate he is a sturdy, elite pitcher despite making just 11 starts in the last three injury-devastated seasons.
Player who’ll need to step up: Triston Casas. Aside from Rafael Devers’ hitting, Boston has nothing but questions about who will step up, with the range of possibilities, from high to low, substantial. Casas represents that. In 95 plate appearances last year, the lefty-swinging first baseman hit .197 with 23 strikeouts, but he also had five homers and 19 walks.
Name you’ll get to know: Masataka Yoshida. Boston was criticized for not spending big in free agency and for what it spent the most on — a five-year, $90 million pact (plus a $15.4 million posting fee) for Yoshida, when many of their rivals thought the price should have been considerably lower for the outfielder. If the lefty swinger hits like he did for the Orix Buffaloes last year (.335 average/1.008 OPS ), he will be well worth the dollars.
Biggest question mark: Is this 2003 and 2013? After the 2002 and 2012 seasons, the Red Sox hardly inspired anyone by spreading their dollars around. Yet, the 2003 Red Sox went to ALCS Game 7 (and won it all in 2004) and the 2013 Red Sox were champs. Will it be every 10 years again after Boston signed Kluber, Yoshida, Kenley Jansen, Justin Turner, Chris Martin, Adam Duvall and Joely Rodriguez, and traded for Aldaberto Mondesi?
How it’ll go down: In a division this good, Boston just feels like it has too many questions and too few sure things for above-average results.
