AL MVP Odds & Picks 2023: Why You Should Bet on the AL MVP Futures Market with Ohtani Trade Looming
Will the Los Angeles Angels trade the favorite to win the AL MVP and arguably the best athlete in all of sports right now, Shohei Ohtani, before the MLB trade deadline? We take a closer look at what this might mean for the AL MVP futures market using the latest MLB odds from our best sports betting apps.
Mike Trout is injured for an extended period of time, the Los Angeles Angels are fading in the AL West standings, and Shohei Ohtani is a pending free agent. Most reports indicate that he won't be returning to the Angels, who have failed to even build a postseason team around him.
These next couple of weeks, the news cycle is going to be dominated by Ohtani trade rumors, and betting markets have even released next team odds that you can bet on. The next team odds market is great, but we really have no idea if Ohtani will be traded and where he might be headed.
For this reason, I have been more interested in attacking the Ohtani trade rumors from a completely different angle, and I can't take all the credit here because this thought process was started by some text messages exchanged by myself and our baseball betting analyst, Andrew Brennan, over a month ago.
If Ohtani is going to be traded, should we not be looking at other players in the AL MVP market in the event he is traded to the NL?
Let's take a closer look at the AL MVP odds via our best MLB betting sites with the idea that Ohtani could be on the move at the MLB trade deadline.
AL MVP odds
AL MVP vs. next team odds
It's no secret that Ohtani might be traded, and the next team odds for Ohtani will be the talk of the town in the upcoming weeks. However, I'm going to argue why you should consider focusing on the AL MVP market instead.
When it comes to the next team market, we truly have no idea where he will be traded, and as soon as the deal is finalized, your betting in that market concludes, and hopefully you made the correct prediction.
On the other hand, if you choose the AL MVP route, any player you bet on prior to Ohtani being traded will suddenly become contenders for this award, and see a significant adjustment to their odds.
Ohtani is trading at around -800 to win the AL MVP at our best MLB betting sites. If he gets traded to the NL, 88.9% of the hold percentage will leave this market. This means that everyone's prices will be shortened, and if you hold bets with substantial plus-money odds on other players, you will find yourself in an advantageous position and can work with those bets.
Another advantage of playing the AL MVP market is that the next team odds are much shorter than those of the players chasing Ohtani for the AL MVP. The Los Angeles Dodgers are at +200, and the Mets are at +350 to land Ohtani. However, when you look at the AL MVP, Corey Seager is at +1900, and Wander Franco is at +3500. Both bets rely on the same outcome: Ohtani being traded. Yet, in one market, you get more value for your money and more opportunities to ensure a profit on your investment.
There's also the angle that even if Ohtani doesn't get traded, one of these players could surpass him and win the AL MVP. While highly unlikely, injuries are always a possibility. If he doesn't get traded, you will simply lose your next team bets, unless you bet on the Angels.
Who we're targeting for AL MVP
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I'm framing this as who we're targeting for the AL MVP because these bets were not entirely my idea. I'm merely writing the article, but the decision to focus on this market stemmed from a brainstorming session between myself and Andrew Brennan.
In June, you can see from our text messages that Brennan secured +10000 odds on Corey Seager, which I deeply regret not having in my possession. He tried to draw my attention to it while I was heavily involved in NBA betting, and I should have listened. However, due to the NBA Finals taking place at that time, I didn't get a chance to look at this market until after the NBA season ended, and I could only manage to get Seager at +3500.
I genuinely believe that there's no wrong choice here because all of these prices will be shorter if Ohtani is traded to the NL (88.9%). Seager may not be at +10000 or +3500 anymore, but if you secure him at +1900, he should immediately become the favorite.
Additionally, several sportsbooks are offering an Ohtani vs. the field bet for the AL MVP. Personally, I took a +800 bet via BetMGM on the field for Ohtani vs. the field for AL MVP. The reasoning behind this is that if he gets traded, I likely have a winning bet locked in, which will enable me to remain aggressive with the other bets I have on Seager and Wander Franco.
Here are all of the AL MVP bets that Brennan and I have placed so far this season:
Here are our best MLB betting sites:
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