Alabama vs. Michigan odds, line, spread: 2024 College Football Playoff picks, prediction from proven model
It's a clash of college football titans in the College Football Playoff semifinals on Monday when the top-ranked Michigan Wolverines face the No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide in the 2024 Rose Bowl. The Crimson Tide (12-1) have won six national titles under coach Nick Saban, the first in 2009, and have 16 overall. Michigan (13-0) has won six -- the most recent in 1997 -- and has lost in the College Football Playoff semifinals the past two years. Alabama earned its spot by beating defending national champion Georgia 27-24 in the SEC Championship Game. Michigan beat Ohio State 30-24 then cruised past Iowa 26-0 to win the Big Ten title game.
Kickoff is set for New Year's Day at 5 p.m. ET in Pasadena, Calif. The latest Alabama vs. Michigan odds via SportsLine consensus list the Wolverines as 2-point favorites, and the over/under for total points scored is 45. Before making any Michigan vs. Alabama picks, be sure to see the college football predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a strong profit of well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. The model entered bowl season a profitable 13-9 on top-rated spread picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Alabama vs. Michigan and just revealed its picks and predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several college football odds and betting lines for Michigan vs. Alabama:
- Alabama vs. Michigan spread: Wolverines -2
- Alabama vs. Michigan over/under: 45 points
- Alabama vs. Michigan money line: Wolverines -124, Crimson Tide +104
- ALA: The Crimson Tide are 14-8 ATS in their last 22 games at neutral sites
- MICH: The Wolverines are 12-8 ATS in their last 20 games against ranked teams
- Alabama vs. Michigan picks: See picks at SportsLine
- Alabama vs. Michigan live stream: fubo (try for free)
Why Michigan can cover
The Wolverines are 38-3 over the past three seasons, second only to Georgia (41-2). They believe this is their year, as they have one of the nation's best defenses and average 37 points per game. Michigan outscores opponents by more than 27 points per game, as the defense yields an FBS-low 9.5 per contest. The Wolverines have scored at least 30 points in 11 of their 13 games. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy is second in the nation in completion percentage (74.2).
McCarthy has 19 touchdown passes, 11 to receiver Roman Wilson, and just four interceptions. Running back Blake Corum has 1,028 rushing yards (4.7 per carry) and leads the nation with 24 rushing touchdowns this season. Michigan is 7-5-1 against the spread and 2-0 ATS against ranked opponents. They have a huge edge in turnovers, coming in at plus-17, second-best in the nation. The defense allows 4.3 yards per play (fourth in FBS) and 2.9 per rush (sixth). See which team to pick here.
Why Alabama can cover
The Crimson Tide are 9-4 against the spread and 6-2 straight-up in their past eight as underdogs. They have not been an underdog against a team other than Georgia since 2009. Alabama has won six straight CFP semifinal games, while Michigan has lost both appearances and has lost six straight bowl games. The Alabama offense, led by quarterback Jalen Milroe, averages 35.1 points (19th in FBS). Milroe has 2,718 passing yards and 468 rushing and has accounted for 35 TDs (12 rushing).
The quarterback is averaging 10.8 yards per attempt (second in FBS), and Alabama is 10-0 (8-2 ATS) in his past 10 starts. Jase MccLellan has 803 rushing yards, fellow running back Roydell Williams averages 5.1 per carry, and they have combined for 11 TDs. Receivers Jermaine Burton and Isaiah Bond have combined for 1,289 yards and 12 TDs. See which team to pick here.
How to make Alabama vs. Michigan picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 55 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in almost 60% of simulations. You can only get the model's pick at SportsLine.
