Alcaraz: Cincinnati 2023: Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick

Fixture: (1) Carlos Alcaraz vs (14) Tommy Paul

Tournament: Western & Southern Open 2023

Round: Third Round (Round of 16)

Venue: Cincinnati, US

Surface:Hard

Prize money: $6,600,000

Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul preview

Carlos Alcaraz will have revenge on his mind when he takes on familiar foe Tommy Paul for a place in the quarterfinals of the 2023 Cincinnati Open.

Paul has exceeded expectations and achieved breakthrough success in 2023. The American surprised every tennis fan at the beginning of the year, as he reached the semifinals of the Australian Open (where he lost to 10-time titlist Novak Djokovic).

The World No. 13 has continued to impress since then; he finished runner-up at three ATP tournaments and also made the last four in Toronto last week. He had to beat the reigning Wimbledon champion Alcaraz to achieve the latter feat in a comprehensive 6-3, 4-6, 6-3 victory.

Paul is in some fine form in Cincinnati, having defeated Ugo Humbert and Miomir Kecmanovic in straight sets to reach the Round of 16 at the ATP Masters 1000 tournament for the first time in his career.

Alcaraz, meanwhile, has struggled to transition from grass courts to hard. He failed to replicate the form that saw him triumph over rival Djokovic in five laborious sets, losing to Paul himself in the quarterfinals of the 2023 Canadian Open.

The Spaniard was far from his best in his opener against Jordan Thompson, dropping the second set against the Australian in an erratic display. He was able to regroup in the decider, though, ultimately winning the match 7-5, 4-6, 6-3 to advance to the Round of 16 in Cincinnati.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul head-to-head

Tommy Paul leads Carlos Alcaraz by a margin of 2-1 in their head-to-head meetings. While Paul has come out on top of their matches at the Canadian Open over the last two years, the Spaniard defeated him handily en route to bagging this year's Indian Wells Masters.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul odds

(Odds will be added once they're available)

Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul prediction

Tommy Paul possesses a strong forehand and aggressive footwork just like his Spanish opponent. The American is also considerably consistent from the baseline and can change shot direction at a whim with his deadly groundstrokes. He has also won 83% of his first-serve points coming into the blockbuster clash with the current World No. 1 in Cincinnati.

Alcaraz, meanwhile, has been misfiring quite a lot recently despite the quality of his game. The 20-year-old hit 32 winners and 41 unforced errors in his previous match and will have to shift gears in his next match in order to survive in Cincinnati.

Having said that, if Alcaraz does find the rhythm that has seen him romp to a 50-5 win-loss record in 2023, there may not be much that the American can do to douse him. It should also be noted that while Paul can match his younger opponent pound-for-pound from the back of the court, he is susceptible to throwing in a few short balls during longer rallies.

The two-time Major winner doesn't have as much trouble as the 26-year-old at creating depth on his shots and has a killer drop shot to end baseline rallies. It is likely that he will beat his American opponent, provided he does not make many uncharacteristic unforced errors.

Pick: Carlos Alcaraz to win in two tight sets.