Alex Hammond weekly horse racing blog and tips: Welcome winners ahead of Coral-Eclipse
At the time of writing some momentum has built up with four successive successes and it feels good. With that comes pressure. Just to give you some context, this is something I put plenty of energy in to, and I really feel the pressure of trying to select two horses every day that will give us a run for our money.
As you know, horses are unpredictable animals, and we don’t always get what we hope for. One thing I’m particularly proud of though is that on many of the days, one of the two horses usually obliges. Getting two out of two each day is not so easy (give it a try; just two selections and see how you go). You need a bit of luck and a following wind, and that is what’s happening this week.
With a process like this, I follow the same principles every day, but sometimes you just don’t get the luck. This is very much like training racehorses. How many times do you see a stable having a hot streak? During these purple patches they can do little wrong, and horses run up to, or above, expectations. If you asked any trainer what they did differently during that time, they’d tell you “absolutely nothing”, and when things don’t go so well, they are always advised to change nothing, your luck will come back around.
I find that as soon as I start agonising over the selections and changing my mind, things go wrong. When you’re on a roll those horses leap off the page at you. What a game!
Feeling the Flow ahead of Saturday action
On to this weekend then and one of my formulas is to follow a stable in form. I avoid out of form stables like the plague but as soon as their fortunes start to change, I follow them religiously. This is a principle that I’m hoping will pay dividends in the opening race at Sandown on Saturday, the Coral Charge.
William Haggas rarely operates at a strike rate below 20% but since the spring his horses have been running below par. The trainer has admitted something hasn’t been quite right with them but a look at their recent stats suggests that the tide has turned.
This is good news for TIBER FLOW in this Group 3 sprint, as is his stall position in two. Of the principles, only Marshman has a favourable stall and that has swayed me in the direction of this speedy four-year-old.
Owing to his win in the Chipchase Stakes at Newcastle last time out he must concede a penalty to his rivals, but I’m not deterred. This will be his first attempt at five-furlongs, but he travelled supremely well last time out, and it doesn’t look like a drop in trip will inconvenience him. If the ground remains on the easy side, that’s even better news.
He’s 11/2 with Sky Bet at the time of writing and as they have a money back as cash offer on this race, I feel it’s worth taking on the market leaders.
The feature race at Sandown is the Coral-Eclipse, which has attracted a field of just four. They are a fair quartet mind you, and the clash between Paddington and Emily Upjohn really whets the appetite.
Paddington is Sky Bet’s 11/10 favourite, and I have him as my favourite too. I just think the 10lbs weight for age allowance that he gets is enough to swing things in his favour. He’s progressing at a rate of knots and the step up to this mile and a quarter shouldn’t be a problem as he’s related to middle-distance stayers.
Emily Upjohn is dropping back from a mile and a half, but the trip shouldn’t be an issue, and without the hood that she has worn recently, John and Thady Gosden probably won’t mind if she uses her exuberance over this shorter trip. It's a race to watch and enjoy.
Sunshine on Keith?
Over at Haydock, it would be a fairytale if Keith Dalgleish can sign off his training career with a winner.
The bet365 Old Newton Cup has apparently been the plan for ALRIGHT SUNSHINE for some time, and Keith is far too good a trainer for this to be an oversight.
As an eight-year-old there isn’t much we don’t know about this horse, but he is hovering around the same mark that he was last successful off and could be an each-way play at 16/1. As Sky Bet are paying six places, rather than four, that looks more attractive.
I read a report that Dalgleish is planning to move his family to the Highlands of Scotland, now that is something I’m hugely envious of. Good luck to him in the future and I hope he isn’t lost to the racing game.
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