All Blacks vs Argentina preview: Where Rugby World Cup semifinal will be won

From underdogs to unbackable favourites, this seismic World Cup shift descends upon the All Blacks semifinal. Such is the mantle that comes with knocking out theworld No 1. A largely uncertain, anxious nation transforms into overnight believers. A previously doubting global rugby public are prematurely anointing finalists. The All Blacks, though, remain unwavering in their here-and-now mantra.

Sport is an unpredictable beast. Just ask Ireland and their defunct 17 test winning run.

Ian Foster’s All Blacks are well versed in blocking out external expectations. Through the worst of times they absorbed the art of traversing pitfalls and staying true to themselves.

With a fraught backdrop that suggests they should comfortably dissect the Pumas to progress to their first World Cup final in eight years, embracing bubble life has never been so important.

While 11 of this week’s team carry the lingering hurt from their failed 2019 World Cup semifinal the full squad harness valuable recent experience of ignoring the periphery.

Amid a cacophony of criticism and a series of historic lows the All Blacks defied all odds in last year’s Ellis Park triumph that proved pivotal in shaping this resilient team.

Successive losses to the Springboks and their World Cup opening defeat to France after arriving in Europe could have rocked the All Blacks to their core. They instead remained defiant.

Last week, when the odds and pundits predicted Ireland’s surge continuing, the All Blacks conjured the best performance of Foster’s tenure when they needed it most.

As expectations on their World Cup campaign shift faster than the stock market, the All Blacks simply stay the course to maintain their sweet spot equilibrium.

In doing so, they project a sense of ruthless calm.

“This group and loving being here where they’re at right now,” Foster said. “The hardest thing to do in professional sport is stay in the now, to be present where you’re at and nail the thing in front of you because there’s so much talk about the past and the future.

“The hardest thing is to not allow yourself to get distracted by those two conversations and be the best you can be right now. We’re working hard at that. I’m incredibly proud the way the players are dealing with that. This group right now has its own way of doing things. There’s a lot of honesty. We want to be tested and we will be tomorrow night.”

Repeating last week’s heroic efforts against Ireland by overcoming the taxing emotional and physical toll inside six days won’t be easy. One handling error through 84 tense minutes underlines the challenge replicating that elite performance on both sides of the ball.

So much of the All Blacks planning and preparation – from an emotive and strategic perspective – zeroed in on Ireland.

While they know the Pumas well, All Blacks midfielder Anton Lienert-Brown is the latest to outline the need to reset and revise for a decidedly different contest.

“There’s no doubt last week was special but we didn’t come here to beat Ireland in a quarter-final,” Lienert-Brown said. “We came here to win the World Cup. We enjoyed that night. We enjoyed Sunday and then got back to work Monday. We know the challenge ahead tomorrow. We’ve got to go again. We’re here to win a World Cup and tomorrow is another step to do that.”

The All Blacks set piece, their scrum which squeezed Ireland and their lineout that leads the World Cup with 51 of 52 successful throws, should savour a significant edge over the Pumas.

Argentina will bring a combative, direct approach through their forwards and seek to use the ball in the wide channels but there’s two areas the All Blacks must get right.

The first is the breakdown. Led by Marcos Kremer the Pumas pack will attempt to make a mess of the All Blacks ruck ball, to frustrate and provoke, by any means possible.

With Sam Cane and Ardie Savea snaffling four turnovers between them the All Blacks dominated this battleground against Ireland. That success is irrelevant for the Pumas, though.

“We had some guys making some brilliant tackles, getting guys to ground early and allowing some of us to get over the ball,” Cane reflected.

“Putting it simply rugby is often winning collisions. When you’re on the front foot winning those collisions it makes it that much easier.

“We’ve got a forward pack from one to eight who can carry the ball really well. We’ve been working hard on defining that area for us and making it a real strength. Our challenge is to go out there and back it up again because it’s certainly an area we pride ourselves on these days.

“We took a massive step up in the weekend there was a heck of a lot that went into that game. We’re at a crunch time in the tournament now where what we delivered last week may not be good enough this week.”

The other area is off the boot. All four quarter-final victors – England, South Africa, Argentina and the All Blacks – kicked more than their opposition.

The All Blacks short kicking game, with Beauden Barrett and Richie Mo’unga exploiting space, exposed the Irish backfield. Will Jordan pulled off one heads up 50-22, too.

Argentina’s swarming breakdown efforts and defensive rush devised by former Kiwis coach David Kidwell instigated their maiden win against the All Blacks on New Zealand soil last year. The following week, the All Blacks adjusted their attack to embrace an array of attacking kicks in their 53-3 response in Hamilton.

With rain settling on Paris, that approach could again be prevalent. Running into the heart of the Pumas defence will play into their hands.

“There might be a few more balls going up and contestables, ball along the ground,” Barrett said. “It’s all about finding that space and having a repertoire with many options and getting the ball there – multiple players who can kick is very important for how we play.”

Distractions are everywhere for the All Blacks. Three months ago in their last meeting they humbled the Pumas in Mendoza with Damian McKenzie at first five-eighth, Josh Lord starting in the second-row and Emoni Narawa debuting on the wing.

The Pumas path to the semifinal includes a heavy loss to England, despite their red card in the third minute, and unconvincing wins over Japan and Wales. On that basis alone the All Blacks deserve their heavy favouritism.

As the All Blacks proved last week, though, all that matters is the now.

All Blacks v Argentina

8am, Saturday

Listen to commentary: Join Elliott Smith on Newstalk ZB, Gold Sport and iHeartRadio, or catch the ACC on iHeartRadio or Hauraki

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