Ambetter Health 400 odds and NASCAR questions: Two great long shot picks and Frankie Muniz

This weekend the NASCAR Cup Series heads to Atlanta Motor Speedway for the Ambetter Health 400. Gone are the days when drivers could take a breather after Daytona. With Atlanta’s 2022 transformation into a superspeedway — and therefore a “plate-race” track — the second points race of the year is another one that anyone can win.

Denny Hamlin is the favorite on some books, but nobody has super short odds to win, with most of the odds starting at 10-to-1. That means this is a great race to look at long shots and who might be undervalued.

As always, we reached out to our NASCAR experts, Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi, to break down our burning questions ahead of Sunday’s race, including favorites, long shots and a really out-there question about why Frankie Muniz is showing up in our NASCAR newsfeeds.

The Ambetter Health 400 is this Sunday, with coverage starting at 3 p.m. ET on FOX and the green flag set to drop at 3:30 p.m.

Last year, you said that Atlanta races similar to a “wild card drafting track” like Daytona. What can we apply from the first 9/10ths of Daytona (basically, pre-wreck) that didn’t show up in the final standings?

Jeff: When the Atlanta asphalt ages further, we’ll likely see the 1.5-mile track take on less of a correlation with Daytona and Talladega. As the track ages, handling will become more of an issue for the drivers as they struggle to keep their cars stuck to the track, and they won’t be able to stay in a drafting-style track for as long. For now, though, Atlanta should still look like a superspeedway race — meaning the typical names up front from Daytona could easily find their way back there again.

Jordan: Two races into the season, and two “wild card” races are already checked off. And for teams who pin their playoff hopes on winning one of these races, not doing so last week or this week means a missed opportunity. Undoubtedly, on Sunday night, there will be multiple teams leaving Atlanta feeling like their season is spiraling downward.

We talk a good amount about crashes being a factor in these superspeedway races. Have any drivers proven adept at avoiding crashes? Maybe driving more conservatively, staying away from heated drivers? Is that even a skill?

Jeff: Surely every driver has thought they could control this at some point. Denny Hamlin has often spoken of his sixth sense for dropping back to avoid superspeedway wrecks when he can tell they may be coming — but still gets caught up in them from time to time. Last week, Joey Logano felt he had everyone around him who was trustworthy and reliable with less than 10 laps to go — and got immediately destroyed in the Big One. There’s no “safe” place on the track at superspeedway races these days, with all the pushing and shoving toward the end of races. So that part is just a roll of the dice, which probably isn’t very comforting to gamblers.

Jordan: Hamlin is certainly one driver who has an apparent sixth sense on when to push forward and drop back. But even that instinct is not perfect; witness Hamlin last week getting ensnared in the same accident that Logano got swept into. As Jeff succinctly noted, there is no “safe space” on the track.

Who do you like to win at Atlanta?

Jeff: Last summer, in a rain-shortened Atlanta race, Brad Keselowski was the star of the show until he was forced into a difficult decision to pit or run out of gas before the race-ending storm arrived. At Daytona last week, Keselowski was his typical aggressive self, drawing the ire of some drivers. But that style may pay off at Atlanta, and we could potentially see Keselowski (+1200) get his first win since leaving Team Penske to be driver/co-owner of RFK Racing after the 2021 season.

Jordan: Keselowski is a great pick, as he nearly won both Atlanta races a year ago. And this track plays to his and Ford’s strengths. But let’s also not overthink who the favorite should be: William Byron. He’s twice won on this reconfigured Atlanta track, and as his Daytona 500 victory attests, he’s one of NASCAR’s best in the draft.

Who is a long shot you like to win at Atlanta?

Jeff: This isn’t exactly groundbreaking analysis, but how is Corey LaJoie available at +4000? Sure, he’s never won a Cup race before. But two of his four career top-five finishes have come in this Atlanta spring race (since it went to a superspeedway-style layout), and he grabbed another top-five last week in the Daytona 500. That’s not even counting the 2022 summer race at Atlanta, which he nearly won. And now LaJoie has a stronger team than he had two years ago. For someone who should be a contender in this race, +4000 seems like a pretty good value.

Jordan: LaJoie is a great pick, and no one should be shocked if he’s celebrating in victory lane on Sunday. But the one name that jumps out from this perspective is Michael McDowell. How is McDowell, a former Daytona 500 winner and one of the best on drafting tracks, listed at +4500? Was this a typo? Was whoever set the lines not paying attention? If you can get McDowell at this number, jump on it and feel good about your chances.

Did you see anything in any of the races this weekend (Cup, Xfinity, Truck) that gave you any kind of insight into “Oh, this driver could win the whole thing!” vibes?

Jeff: It’s important to resist making any conclusions based on Daytona and Atlanta. These drafting-style tracks account for six of the 36 points races this season and don’t translate anywhere else. The real season starts next week at Las Vegas.

Jordan: Too early to make any conclusions and Atlanta isn’t likely to sway one’s opinion in one direction or another. You really can’t begin drawing conclusions until after the West Coast Swing, as races at Las Vegas and Phoenix will offer a better indication than anything that happens at Daytona and Atlanta.

Jeff: Muniz is running a part-time schedule in the Xfinity Series for the underfunded Joey Gase Motorsports team after failing to parlay his rookie season in the lower-level ARCA Series (where he finished fourth of six full-time drivers) into a ride in one of NASCAR’s national series. That speaks to just how difficult it is to gain sponsorship, even for someone with as much name recognition as the “Malcolm in the Middle” star. But this partial schedule might benefit Muniz because he can learn Xfinity racing without much pressure or expectations, relatively out of the spotlight for someone as high-profile as he is. Muniz was caught in a crash at Daytona (who wasn’t?) but told Frontstretch his next race will be Phoenix in a few weeks.

Jordan: “Malcolm in the Middle” was an underrated show.

In your season preview, you highlighted the changes to the Toyota and Ford cars this year, saying the new cars’ performance was basically a “wait and see.” Granting that one race isn’t nearly enough data…what’s your feeling coming out of Daytona?

Jeff: We still just don’t know, because these superspeedway-style tracks don’t tell us much. It’s frustrating to wait three races into the season to get real answers, but we can’t start to make any real judgments until Las Vegas.

Jordan: Still too soon to definitively know. Give it a few more weeks.

NOOB question: From someone who is just getting into NASCAR for the first time, what are the biggest factors to watch out for at Atlanta?

Jeff: Atlanta used to be a “traditional” 1.5-mile intermediate track, typically the bread and butter of the NASCAR Cup Series. But as the asphalt was badly in need of a repave a few years ago, track owner Marcus Smith decided to go in a bold and controversial direction — creating the first 1.5-mile superspeedway. The other similar tracks, Daytona (2.5 miles) and Talladega (2.66 miles), are significantly larger and allow for the pack racing you see in the Daytona 500. But Smith’s Atlanta creation has shown an intermediate track can have that style of racing as well. So expect large groups of cars running together and the possibility of another “Big One” crash this week.

Jordan: This track has developed a reputation for chewing up cars. Expect that to be the case again on Sunday.