Andreescu vs. Kenin Miami Open picks and odds: Bet on match going the distance

Bianca Andreescu faces Sofia Kenin in the third round of the Miami Open.

The pregame narrative: Bianca Andreescu is playing her best tennis of the year, but so is Kenin. This profiles as a close match that’ll likely see these competitors push each other to the limit.

Tennis odds as of 4:51 p.m. on 03/25/2023.

Andreescu vs. Kenin Miami Open picks

Best Bet: Over 2.5 sets (+145)

Three-set matches are kind of becoming the norm for Andreescu lately.

The Canadian went the distance in both of her matches at this tournament. It’s not because she isn’t able to break her opponent, her 60.5% break points converted percentage is the eighth-best mark among WTA players this year, according to WTAtennis.com. It has more to do with her serve.

Andreescu places 96th in service points won percentage (55.3%) and has won just 58% of her service points in her most recent match against Maria Sakkari.

This makes her match with Kenin a true clash of styles. The American is 146th in break points converted percentage (34.9%), but 23rd in service points won percentage (60.3%).

We’re expecting Kenin’s serve to dominate at times, and Andreescu’s return skills to rule at others. With nice plus-money odds accompanying this wager, we’ll gladly take the over on 2.5 sets.

Key stat: Three of Andreescu’s last four matches have needed three sets.

Quick picks

Kenin +3.5 games (-130): Neither Kenin nor Andreescu advanced very far at Indian Wells, but both underwent encouraging losses. Andreesu’s was a straight-sets defeat to Iga Swiatek that saw her rediscover her elite return ability.

Kenin’s was a straight-sets loss where twice she took eventual tournament winner Elena Rybakina to tiebreak.

Since we’re expecting this match to need three sets, it seems wise to back Kenin with a significant amount of games at this price.

Andreescu over 12.5 games won (-109): Ultimately, Andreescu (-200) is a fairly significant favourite and we’re expecting her to win this match. In order to do so, she’ll have to win a minimum of 12 games (barring a walkover or retirement, of course).

Since we’re also anticipating a three-set duel, taking the over at this number makes plenty of sense. Andreescu can also clear this number without winning the match if it goes to three sets, and is still able to go over if she’s victorious in two sets with at least one tiebreak win.