Angels vs White Sox Prediction, Picks, Odds

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29 May 2023

Angels vs White Sox Prediction, Picks, Odds

Chicago White Sox starter Michael Kopech has put together some impressive outings recently. But as we explain in our MLB betting picks, there's still plenty of reason to believe in the Los Angeles Angels as appealing road underdogs.

It’s a matchup of two disappointing American League teams when the Los Angeles Angels visit the Chicago White Sox. One squad has just been a little more disappointing than the other.

The Angels have dropped three straight coming into this matchup and are 28-26 for the season. That record would be good enough for first in the AL Central, but they're fourth in the West.

Speaking of the Central, the White Sox may be the most disappointing team in MLB at 22-33. But some good news is on the horizon as closer Liam Hendriks returns to the team after his battle with cancer.

But will those good feelings be enough to secure a win as the home favorite? I break down the MLB odds and bring you my best bet in our free MLB picks and predictions for Angels vs. White Sox.

Angels vs White Sox odds

Angels vs White Sox predictions

The Los Angeles Angels were playing solid baseball. They had won six of seven games heading into a home series against the Miami Marlins. And they were promptly swept. Now they hand the ball to Griffin Canning while aiming to stop their skid, and they're hoping he can build off an impressive start last time out.

Meanwhile, it's been a tough season overall for the 22-33 Chicago White Sox. The only teams with worse records than Chicago in the American League are the Kansas City Royals and Oakland A’s. But the team has been enjoying a couple of bright spots lately.

One is the return of closer Liam Hendriks. And two has been the recent performance of Monday’s starter Michael Kopech. The right-hander hasn’t allowed a run over his last two starts, giving up just three hits and striking out 19 over 15 innings.

However, seeing the White Sox as -140 favorites confuses me a bit. Yes, Kopech has been outstanding recently. But his last two outings came against the Cleveland Guardians and the Kansas City Royals – two of the worst-hitting teams in baseball against right-handed pitching.

In fact, if you break down all of Kopech’s 10 starts this season, he's logged five good ones and five not-so-good ones. The good ones have come against the Guardians, Kansas City Royals, Cincinnati Reds, Minnesota Twins, and Pittsburgh Pirates. The not-so-good ones have come against the Houston Astros, Toronto Blue Jays, Tampa Bay Rays, Baltimore Orioles, and San Francisco Giants.

So he's pitching well against poor lineups and not well against good lineups. I would categorize the Angels as boasting a good lineup. With Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout leading the way, the Halos rank ninth in batting average, and 12th in OPS and wRC+ when facing right-handed pitching.

And the advanced numbers aren’t as pretty for Kopech. Overall, he owns an expected ERA of 5.30 and is allowing a .461 expected slugging percentage to opponents. He also ranks in the 18th percentile in walk rate. This Angels team is good enough to capitalize on those mistakes.

So, while on the surface it may look like the White Sox hold an edge in starting pitching, it’s actually much closer than you realize. Canning is pitching to a 4.46 xERA. He also holds the advantage of facing a Pale Hose lineup that ranks 22nd in batting average, 26th in OPS, and 27th in wRC+ against righties this season.

I’m not sure if the proper team is favored here, so back the Halos as road dogs on Monday.

My best bet: Angels moneyline (+125 at Caesars)

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Angels vs White Sox moneyline analysis

I find this line to be a little perplexing. The White Sox opened this AL matchup as about -125 home favorites, and the line has since moved all the way to Chicago -145 as of Monday afternoon.

That's likely mostly due to recency bias after Kopech’s last two starts and the Marlins sweeping the Angels, resulting in the White Sox being overvaluing.

Griffin arguably holds better overall numbers than Kopech. He's also pitching well coming into this matchup after shutting out a much tougher Boston Red Sox lineup, giving up two hits over seven innings last time out. Additionally, the Angels' lineup is in a better place than the White Sox at the moment.

Kopech also made one start against the Angels in 2022, allowing four runs (three earned ) on five hits over 5 1/3 innings in an eventual 4-1 L.A. victory.

If you had told me the Angels were -110 in this matchup I wouldn’t have batted an eyelash. The Angels look like the right side here.

Angels vs White Sox Over/Under analysis

The number hit the board at 8.5 and has been bumped up to 9. And I’m inclined to agree with the early money.

Despite coming into this game pitching well, both starters hold expected ERAs north of 4.50. The Angels are more than capable of taking advantage of that matchup. Meanwhile, the White Sox have been slightly better at home, plating 4.18 runs per game against righty pitching.

Don’t be surprised if we see the scoreboard light up during this game.

Angels vs White Sox game info

Starting pitchers

Griffin Canning (3-2, 4.95 ERA): Canning is coming off his best start of the season when he pitched seven scoreless innings against a good Red Sox lineup, limiting them to just two hits. His strikeout rate has been down in 2023.

Michael Kopech (3-4, 4.24 ERA): Kopech is also in the middle of a hot stretch and has thrown 15 consecutive scoreless innings while striking out 19 batters compared to just one walk over that span.