Are the Lions a bigger liability for sportsbooks or bettors? Why chasing hype could bruise your bankroll

Everyone knows at least one old man sports fan who makes his curmudgeonly takes known, regardless of whether anyone ever wants to hear them. They're bums, the old man would say about hyped-up teams. They haven't won anything yet. 

​​​​​​​Many NFL bettors could have benefited from listening to that grumpy old man this summer, at least when it comes to dropping bankroll bucks on the 2023 Detroit Lions.

Our friends at BetMGM recently sent us their betting insights and action data for various NFL awards, and we were blown away to see the Lions ranking as the sportsbook's biggest liability for Coach of the Year (Dan Campbell), Defensive Player of the Year (Aidan Hutchinson), and Offensive Rookie of the Year (Jahmyr Gibbs). 

Detroit has also risen from -150 to make the playoffs to -175, more than likely a result of fans bandwagoning the Lions after their 9-8 record in 2022. Those -175 odds translate to a 63.6 percent win probability, a mind-blowing number for a franchise that hasn't been to the postseason since 2016 and has not won a playoff game since 1991.

Indeed, the hype train has rolled into Motown. Perhaps they are so popular due to lingering fan interest from Detroit's 2022 run on Hard Knocks. Maybe people are expecting a Vikings regression or think the Lions will take the Packers' place in Aaron Rodgers' absence.

Whatever the reason, the success or failure of the fifth-oldest team in professional football will play a large part in dictating whether BetMGM enjoys a lucrative season on the futures market.

Are the Lions really a liability to sportsbooks? Or, are bettors the ones who have taken on all the risk? Below, we will evaluate three most heavily bet Lions futures props — as well as Detroit's odds to make or miss the playoffs — and assess whether BetMGM or the betting public has the upper hand with each prop.

All odds, betting insights, and market reports from BetMGM.

Book vs. Bettors: Assessing the Lions' heavy action entering the 2023 NFL season

Defensive Player of the Year: Aidan Hutchinson (+2000)

As you can see, Hutchinson opened at +2800 to win DPOY. But bettors quickly clamored to the futures market to smash bets on the second-year pass-rusher. In no time, Hutch appeared on the highest percentage of tickets associated with Defensive Player of the Year. The massive action on Hutchinson has resulted in the 23-year-old jumping all the way up to +2000. 

In late June, I wrote that Hutchinson was one of our sleepers to win the award. But now that he has jumped so high, we no longer view the defensive end as a value. The odds-on favorite – and our best bet to win DPOY — continues to be Cowboys superstar Micah Parsons, and 2021 winner T.J. Watt and Browns two-time All-Pro Myles Garrett have a pretty good chance of prevailing, as well. 

According to StatMuse, only three NFL players have ever won Defensive Player of the Year before their 24th birthday: Luke Kuechly (2013), J.J. Watt (2012), and Lawrence Taylor (1981 and 1982). Talk about a terrific trio of defenders. Voters historically favor players with multiple seasons of proven success — and with dominant defenses around them. We wouldn't touch Mr. Hutch at +2000 — he's too young and the Lions are too shaky as a complete defensive unit. 

Betting advice: Fade Hutchinson (+2000). Focus instead on either Parsons (+650) or Watt (+750) as best bets, with the Patriots' Matthew Judon (+5000) as a big-value sleeper. Judon ranked top-five in sacks last season with 15.5, and he's one of the most trusted veteran leaders on a perennially-dominant Pats defense.

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Jahmyr Gibbs (+800)

Like Hutchinson in the DPOY odds, Gibbs represents BetMGM's biggest liability in the Offensive Rookie of the Year race. But unlike Hutch, Gibbs hasn't seen his odds skyrocket. That's because he opened as one of the frontrunners, one of only six rookies with better than 10-1 odds.

The Lions back still finds himself well behind stud Falcons running back and eighth overall pick Bijan Robinson (+250). His odds also sit longer than those of QBs Bryce Young (+450) and Anthony Richardson (+700). However, Gibbs leapfrogged Texans QB C.J. Stroud (+850) and left Seahawks wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+1200) in his dust.

If you got in some early money on Gibbs, good on you. But if you didn't and still have a feeling about him, you haven't lost much value. We still tend to lean on Bijan because he's a better all-around talent — and we're also keeping an eye on Richardson with the Colts this season (RG3 2.0!?) — but Gibbs plays for the much better team, and inherits a heavy workload with Jamaal Williams and D'Andre Swift both departing Detroit during the offseason. 

Some bettors and analysts have been ambivalent about betting Gibbs in the OROY market, if for no other reason the presence of veteran back David Montgomery on the Lions RB depth chart. But let's remember that Montgomery only averaged 3.8 yards per carry and 4.5 yards per touch over the past two seasons. There's a reason why Chicago felt confident ditching Monty for Khalil Herbert, and a reason Detroit drafted Gibbs.

Betting advice: We actually still like and see plenty of value in Gibbs (+800). However, we might do a roulette-like hedge where we put $25 on him, $30 on Richardson (+700), and $45 on Bijan (+250). That's a $100 investment with the chance to net $100 if Gibbs wins, $110 on Richardson if he wins, or $12.50 if Bijan wins (favorite money-back insurance!). 

Coach of the Year: Dan Campbell (+900)

To be frank, betting on Coach of the Year — especially in the preseason — is an exercise in futility. It's an odds market that's almost entirely dictated by the sportsbooks, and probably the least predictable awards race in the sport. Seeing Campbell listed by BetMGM as the biggest liability, highest ticket percentage, highest handle, and shortest odds tells me one thing: I'm not touching Dan Campbell in this market.

But honestly, I'm not touching any coach in the COY market. The Lions are an incredibly hyped-up team with ridiculously lofty expectations from fans and the betting public. Coaches of the Year tend to be rewarded to leaders of teams that greatly surpass expectations, not coaches of teams that came in with massive expectations and performed well. And there's no points for the previous year's run. 

Want to know why you shouldn't trust Coach of the Year enough to bet on it? Bill Belichick — the greatest coach in the modern history of football — has only won three COYs, and hasn't won since 2010. Sean Payton and Andy Reid only have one each. We're all set with this weird popularity contest in which voting doesn't follow any quantifiable basis like stats or records.

Betting advice: Don't bet on Coach of the Year — not now, not ever — especially in the preseason.

To make/miss playoffs (Lions to Make: -150; Lions to Miss: +145)

Now this one is interesting. According to our friends at BetMGM, the Lions have been the second most heavily bet team to miss the playoffs (+145), with savvy sharps using the hype around Motown to their advantage. That's fantastic value for a team that perennially finds itself outside of the bubble and hasn't won a playoff series since The Silence of the Lambs was released.

Finally, the betting public gets something right with these Lions — although, to be fair, 51 percent of the money is still on Detroit making the playoffs. At least 62 percent of tickets and nearly half of the handle are on the Lions missing the cut. Because, let's face it, people — even with the NFC North a shell of its formerly dominant existence — the Lions gonna Lion, and Jared Goff gonna Goff.

Betting advice: Call me a cynic, a contrarian, or just a curmudgeonly old man like the hypothetical dude I talked about in the intro, but I'm fading the Lions and betting them to miss the playoffs (+145). Rome wasn't built in a day, and this passing game and defense is no sure thing just because Detroit went 9-8 last year.

A better bet to make the playoffs is the Seahawks (-120), who have improved substantially over the offseason and have a much better, more consistent QB than Goff in Geno Smith. We also like the Vikings (+115) to make the playoffs as they're the best team in the NFC North with Justin Jefferson, the best wideout in football.

Long shot? Give me the Broncos to make the playoffs (+200) under Sean Payton with a healthy defense and receiving corps and a bounce-back Russ Wilson year. Best value fade: the Jets to miss the playoffs (+115). Sorry, we're not buying into weird 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers transforming this team from 7-10 to 11-6.