Arizona Diamondbacks' upcoming schedule provides golden opportunity
Understandably, the first eight minutes of Torey Lovullo’s press conference following Sunday’s loss to the Padres focused on the game that had just transpired. Because that game was a disappointing 7-5 loss, the mood in the room was a mix of somber and frustrated.
Then, a question was posed.
Do you think, going into the season, you would have taken 12-11 with this first 23-game schedule?
At the podium, Lovullo’s mood immediately shifted, his mind zooming out from the short-term sting of a loss and examining the season as a whole.
“This gives me an opportunity to talk about how proud I am of these guys,” Lovullo said. “These guys have been getting after it. I think we're showing the rest of the league that we're a good baseball team.”
So, would he have taken 12-11?
“Yeah,” Lovullo said. “For sure.”
The reason for that is simple. In their seven series to this point, the Diamondbacks have faced the Dodgers, Padres, Dodgers, Brewers, Marlins, Cardinals and Padres. Counting the Dodgers and Padres twice, five of those seven opponents reached the playoffs last year. Their average record was 94-68.
There’s a reason, too, that this moment was selected to take stock of the season. Over their next seven series, the Diamondbacks’ schedule reads: Royals, Rockies, Rangers, Nationals, Marlins, Giants, Athletics.
Per Fangraphs, four of those clubs have playoff odds below 1.0%. One is in the midst of an open-casket funeral until its owner can get a stadium built in Las Vegas. Together, their average 2022 record was 67-95. This year, it’s even worse, at 8-14.
As managers have to do, Lovullo downplayed the notion that the Diamondbacks’ forthcoming opponents are easy.
“It's a dangerous thing to start thinking about who you're playing and what their record is because we respect every opponent that sits across the field from us,” Lovullo said. “And if we start to look at them as a less-talented team — which they are not — we're gonna be in trouble.”
That’s an important attitude for the Diamondbacks to carry. And the first part may well be true. But the part about these teams not being less talented?
Well, let’s take a look at Sunday’s opponent and compare them to Monday’s opponent.
On Sunday, the Padres lineup began with Fernando Tatis Jr., Juan Soto, Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts. Outside of Zac Gallen, Diamondbacks starters struggled in the series, allowing more runs than innings pitched and raising questions over whether the rotation is good enough to contend. But two teams play this game. And when each of the first four hitters in a lineup are perennial All-Stars who enter each season expecting to be in MVP consideration, the opposing starter is going to look bad more often than not.
The Royals, meanwhile, have a top four of Bobby Witt Jr., MJ Melendez, Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvador Perez. Not exactly the same star power.
On the pitching side, the Diamondbacks will go from facing Yu Darvish to Brad Keller. The next time they’re scheduled to go up against a starter with an All-Star Game appearance is a month from now in Philadelphia.
One reason the Diamondbacks have been able to stay over .500 is their lack of cold starts up and down the lineup. But for players like Jake McCarthy and Alek Thomas, the next month is the perfect chance to get on track. The same rings true for the pitchers who encountered trouble last week, like rookies Drey Jameson and Ryne Nelson.
All of this creates a golden opportunity for the Diamondbacks. So far, they’ve hung with some of the sport’s toughest teams. That’s half the equation to making the playoffs. The other half is beating up on the dredges of the league.
In 2021, when they lost 110 games, the Diamondbacks went 11-51 against playoff teams. Against teams like Kansas City, Colorado, Washington and Oakland, they have a chance to be on the other side of that dominance.
Say, for example, that the Diamondbacks go 14-7 — keeping in line with the win percentage of their upcoming opponents thus far. That would put them at 26-18. Over the last five full seasons, 34 teams have started 26-18 or better. Twenty-six of them have made the playoffs.
