Arizona State vs. Utah prediction: Pac-12 Tournament odds, best bets

It’s been a difficult season for the Arizona State Sun Devils after making the NCAA Tournament as an 11th seed last year.

Arizona State finished ninth in conference play (8-12) and 14-17 overall.

The good news for the Sun Devils is they’ll get a clean slate with the conference tournament set to get underway.

The bad news is they’ll be without their second-leading scorer, Jose Perez (13.5 PPG).

Perez left the team before their regular season finale against UCLA to play professionally in the Dominican Republic. 

Arizona State wound up losing the game 59-47. 

To keep their season alive, the Sun Devils must defeat a Utah team they’re undefeated against in two meetings.

Utah could be without its leading scorer, center Branden Carlson (17.5 PPG). Carlson suffered an arm injury in the second half of Utah’s 66-65 loss at Oregon. 

Neither team enters this matchup playing particularly well.

Arizona State has lost three straight games compared to two in a row for Utah. 

While the Utes look like an up-and-coming team with head coach Craig Smith in his third season, Arizona State has had their number, winning five straight meetings and seven of the last eight.

It’s difficult to assess the motivation for Arizona State in this contest. While it’s another opportunity for these student-athletes to take the court, it could be their final game in a trying campaign.

Perhaps their struggles shouldn’t be a surprise, considering they returned only one starter and 28% of their player minutes from a season ago. 

Moreover, the additions of center Shawn Phillips Jr. (LSU) and guards Bryen Long (Houston Baptist) and Malachi Davis (junior college) never really panned out. 

Long is out for the remainder of the season, Davis has played just seven games, and Phillips averages only 14 minutes despite his 7-foot stature.

Arizona State head coach Bobby Hurley plays an exciting basketball brand with his uptempo style.

Per TeamRankings, the Sun Devils rank 88th in possessions with 72.3 per game. Using Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric, their 100.2 points allowed per 100 possessions belie their 14-17 record. 

The Sun Devils have struggled this season to defend the perimeter, allowing opponents 7.7 3-point field goals per game. 

If Carlson doesn’t play for Utah, it’s conceivable that the Sun Devils devote less of their attention inside the paint.

Despite being the better team in this series, Utah couldn’t get a win against Arizona State. The Utes lost 82-70 as 6.5-point road favorites in the first meeting. 

At some point, I’ve got to think that some doubt about whether the Utes can defeat this Sun Devils team starts to settle in.

Even the betting market seems to have lost some patience with the Utes, as they’ve been bet down to -5.5 at some sportsbooks after opening at -6.5.

With Perez’s departure from the team, Carlson’s injury could be a wash. As a result, I see no reason to give Utah an even bigger edge in this game.

While Utah also likes to play fast, ranking 61st with 73.2 possessions, it struggled in its transition defense in both games against Arizona State. 

The Sun Devils outscored the Utes in fastbreak points 40-26 over the two games. 

Lastly, free throw shooting could also come into play, as Utah shot just 55% from the charity stripe against Arizona State.

Given how both teams are inherently flawed, laying points is difficult in this matchup.

There aren’t any attractive options for this game, so I’d prefer to start with the points in my back pocket.

I probably would’ve ended up with a play on the over, but the offenses could take a hit without two key players.

Utah will simply have to prove it can get over the hump against this Arizona State program.

The Sun Devils’ uptempo transition game remains consistent, and it’s clearly a strength they can use against the Utes.

Arizona State doesn’t have much to lose in this game, as the pressure will squarely be on Utah. 

I also don’t have any trust in the Utes if they have to put out the game from the free throw line.

I can only consider one team in this matchup, so I’m riding with the underdogs from Arizona State.

Pick: Arizona State +6 (PointsBet, -110)