Astros-Red Sox prediction: Picks, odds on Wednesday, August 30

One team is looking to keep pace in the impossibly tight AL West while the other is just trying to keep its faint Wild Card hopes alive as the Houston Astros (74-58) look to polish off a road sweep of the slumping Boston Red Sox (69-64) on Wednesday afternoon. First pitch from Fenway Park is set for 4:10 p.m. ET. Lefty Framber Valdez (9-9, 3.40 ERA) will go for the visitors while Boston gives the ball to righty Kutter Crawford (6-6, 3.65).

Houston enters as -135 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Red Sox at +114. The run total is set at 10.

Astros-Red Sox picks: Wednesday, August 30

Injury report

Astros

Out: INF Grae Kessinger (health and safety protocols), OF Michael Brantley (right shoulder surgery)

Red Sox

Out: RP Brennan Bernardino (health and safety protocols), OF Jarren Duran (left toe contusion)

Starting pitchers

Framber Valdez vs. Kutter Crawford

What a roller coaster it’s been for Valdez in August. He began the month on the highest of high notes, firing a no-hitter against the Guardians and looking like he’d finally turned the corner from his miserable July ... only to allow 16 runs (15 earned) on 24 hits over 19.2 innings across his next three outings. Of course, what did he do last time out? He flirted with another no-no, going seven hitless innings (albeit with five walks) before being lifted against the Tigers. At this point, it’s anyone’s guess which Valdez will show up, but when he has his curveball cooking to supplement his power sinker, he’s a frontline starter.

Crawford has held up his end of the bargain since injuries thrust the reliever into Boston’s rotation full-time back in June. The righty has allowed three or fewer runs in all but three of his 17 starts, with a 3.00 ERA across five outings so far in August. He gave up just one hit and one run in six innings against the Yankees a couple weeks ago, then kept the Dodgers at bay over the weekend with two runs on four hits with seven strikeouts in five solid frames. He’s still not providing a ton of depth, but his fastball is a bear to deal with, sporting a 25.9% whiff rate and measly .173 BA against.

Over/Under pick

Fenway Park can lead to some awfully crooked numbers, but after a 6-2 final on Tuesday, I’m backing the under again in the series finale. Granted, Valdez could push us over here all by himself, but the Red Sox have been miserable against left-handed pitching this month — with the second-highest K rate against southpaws in the Majors since August 1. I’m banking on Valdez to build on his most recent outing here, while Crawford has managed to churn out five solid innings more often than not.

Pick: Under 10

Moneyline pick

Valdez is very hard to trust right now, but his ceiling is far higher than Crawford, and he has the more reliable lineup backing him in this spot. I’m tempted to take Boston as home ‘dogs as they look to avoid a sweep that might bury their postseason hopes, but a lefty-heavy lineup’s struggles against southpaws of late — and Yordan Alvarez’s recent tear — have me riding with Houston again.