ATP Dallas Betting Tips and Predictions: Our Picks For This Week's Tennis
Our weekly look into the ATP Tour is a busy one this week as three ATP250 tournaments take place after the break for the Davis Cup.
The big hitters head indoors at Dallas where the defending champion Reilly Opelka had to withdraw from the event, so we will definitely see a new player crowned there.
The Golden Swing begins in Argentina, where Diego Schwartzman takes up his customary position as #1 seed at ATP Cordoba. South America will host clay court tournaments for the next four weeks and it allows those players who specialise in this surface to rack up some ranking points and prize money.
Finally, the early season European indoor swing begins in Montpellier. The French stars often perform well on home soil (decoturf) but the home supporters are looking for their first champion since Gael Monfils triumphed in 2020.
ATP Dallas Betting Tips
As mentioned above, Isner has a lot to like about his draw in this tournament. Whilst it is always a risk to back a player who is so dependent on winning tiebreaks to win tournaments, we have seen that Isner has the edge on most players in a tiebreak situation. Also, with Reilly Opelka missing from the draw, who has defeated Isner in two out of the last three Dallas tournaments, there is a real opening for the US veteran for a late-career hurrah.
The data makes the Belarusian a stand-out at the prices. He has a very tough draw against Jack Sock then Taylor Fritz, but the game is there to win those matches and if that were to happen then Ivashka could find himself near tournament favouritism.
Eubanks looks a decent bet this week with his early ATP Tour data looking so strong. Opelka has big-served his way to this title twice in three events, Ryan Harrison, Kevin Anderson, and Milos Raonic (x3) are all recent winners of this title. This can be won with a big serve and not much else. Eubanks could be the one this year.
Event In Focus: ATP Dallas
As the tournament with the highest purse ($822,175) this week, we have turned our attention to the American indoor event to analyse in depth the relevant statistics for the field at this event.
Rankings & 12-month Form
The 24 non-qualifiers in the draw have been assessed across a number of relevant factors to provide some guidance towards who could perform well in this indoor hard court tournament.
The top seeds Taylor Fritz and Frances Tiafoe are there on merit. They have the best win/loss ratios in the field (barring Yibing Wu’s small sample) over the last year on tour. However, they are not dominant forces, with many players carrying positive records into the tournament,
Fritz does stand out on the games won metrics, winning more games than he is losing by a substantial amount. Denis Shapovalov has the second best record in the field, but it is interesting to note that Taro Daniel comes out of this section of analysis really well. Michael Mmoh’s return numbers are the best in the field but is let down by a comparatively weak serve. Christopher Eubanks has a smaller sample size of matches but his dominant serve helps him to a positive percentage of games won.
Indoor Hard Court & Tiebreak Data
Taking into account the surface type in Dallas we are able to break down the players’ career performance on indoor hard courts on the ATP Tour. These records include qualifying rounds. As a result of indoor hard being a very quick surface, it was also relevant to look at how the players perform in tiebreaks and how often their sets indoors go into tiebreaks.
There is a real mixture of experience in the field. Three players have no record of having played an ATP tournament on indoor hard, whilst John Isner and Adrian Mannarino account for a massive chunk of the total.
Marcos Giron and Jack Sock come out as having the best win percentages in the field in these conditions off a decent sample size, Eubanks has only played eleven matches so it would be unfair to draw too many conclusions from him at this stage. What is most interesting from this information though is that the top players in the seedings all have very average records indoors. This could make them vulnerable in this tournament.
From a games won perspective Eubanks stands out on his small sample, but Ilya Ivashka is an interesting player to watch. Oscar Otte has won more games than he has lost despite a losing match record and Jack Sock’s singles record indoors again stands up well.
Tiebreaks
From a tiebreak perspective John Isner is, of course, the king of the tiebreak. His 0.41 tiebreaks per set figure means that just fewer than half of his played sets on indoor hard court go to a tiebreak and he has the best record in the field, developed over many years, at winning them.
Steve Johnson is another player to watch in terms of playing tiebreaks. A third of his sets in these conditions have gone to a breaker. Shapovalov and Miomir Kecmanovic on the other hand don’t tend to get into tiebreakers as often.
The Main Draw
The top four seeds do not have to play in the opening round. Qualifiers will be confirmed in Monday’s play.
Taylor Fritz has a fairly tricky draw with a lot of the data standouts in his section. By contrast, John Isner looks to have a fairly soft opening to his tournament and has landed in the section with the weakest top four seed in Kecmanovic.
ATP Dallas Betting Tips
As mentioned above, Isner has a lot to like about his draw in this tournament. Whilst it is always a risk to back a player who is so dependent on winning tiebreaks to win tournaments, we have seen that Isner has the edge on most players in a tiebreak situation. Also, with Reilly Opelka missing from the draw, who has defeated Isner in two out of the last three Dallas tournaments, there is a real opening for the US veteran for a late-career hurrah.
The data makes the Belarusian a stand-out at the prices. He has a very tough draw against Jack Sock then Taylor Fritz but the game is there to win those matches and if that were to happen then Ivashka could find himself near tournament favouritism.
Eubanks looks a decent bet this week with his early ATP Tour data looking so strong. Opelka has big-served his way to this title twice in three events, Ryan Harrison, Kevin Anderson, and Milos Raonic (x3) are all recent winners of this title. This can be won with a big serve and not much else. Eubanks could be the one this year.
