Australian Open: Djokovic vs. Fritz odds & prediction
There were some murmurs that Novak Djokovic was not 100% healthy before the Australian Open and those whispers only got louder after the World No. 1 dropped a set against World No. 187 Dino Prizmic in Round 1. Djokovic would eventually ease past Prizmic, but he would drop another set and almost fall behind, 2-1, to Alexei Popyrin in Round 2, adding further fuel to the fire that Djokovic could be vulnerable in this year’s Happy Open.
Those whispers are all but gone now.
Djokovic has been sublime in his last two victories, most notably a 6-0, 6-0, 6-3 whitewash of the always game Adrian Mannarino on Sunday morning.
That win extended Djokovic’s win streak at the Australian Open to 32 matches. He’s a -950 favorite against Taylor Fritz on Monday, in what will be the 58th Grand Slam quarterfinal of his career.
It’s been an impressive start to the Grand Slams season for Fritz, the World No. 12 and the last remaining American in the men’s side of the draw. The big-serving Californian struggled in what should have been an easy Round 1 match with Facundo Diaz Acosta, but his next three wins were a lot less bumpy and his performance against World No. 7 Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Round of 16 was as encouraging a performance as we’ve seen from Fritz in a Grand Slam.
But as strong as Fritz looked against Tsitsipas -- a two-time runner-up and four-time semifinalist at the Australian Open -- he now will enter the deep end of the pool against Djokovic. Not only is the Serb 32 for his last 32 at this event, but he is 8-0 all-time against Fritz and seven of them have been in straight sets. And it’s not like there’s no recent history between Fritz and Djokovic. The World No. 1 dominated Fritz twice last August, including in a 6-1, 6-4, 6-4 victory at the 2023 US Open semifinals.
Djokovic’s domination of this head-to-head shouldn’t be all that surprising. While Fritz is improving, he’s overly reliant on his elite serve to win him cheap points and be the difference-maker. The American’s serve is good enough that it can overpower plenty of opponents, but Djokovic is the best defender in the world and forces you to play extra balls and exchange in long rallies. If you can’t withstand that kind of tennis, you’re going to be in a lot of trouble against the 24-time Grand Slam Champion.
The Bet: Djokovic to win 3-0 (-108, FanDuel)
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