Australian Open prediction: Frances Tiafoe vs. Karen Khachanov odds, pick

American Frances Tiafoe will face his first real test of the Australian Open on Thursday night. The World No. 16 will take on fellow 2022 US Open semifinalist and World No. 20 Karen Khachanov for a place in the Round of 16. 

Everything in the numbers suggest this is a close match, and bookmakers agree, as Tiafoe is currently sitting as a slight -115 favorite to beat Khachanov.

Ohio sports betting is live – Check out the best Ohio betting sites & apps

Australian Open: Khachanov vs. Tiafoe prediction (3 a.m. ET, ESPN+)

Neither Tiafoe nor Khachanov have truly been under pressure yet in the first Grand Slam of the season. Tiafoe defeated Daniel Altmaier in four sets in Round 1 and then quickly swept aside J.C. Shang in Round 2. 

Those victories continued a terrific run for Tiafoe since the US Open. Not only did he make the semifinals in Flushing, but he carried that form into the late stages of 2022 by making a run to the quarterfinals at the Paris Masters and then to the finals in Tokyo. Tiafoe is now 7-0 in 2023, though five of those victories came in the United Cup, so you can take the results with a grain of salt.

Either way, it’s pretty clear to anyone following tennis that Tiafoe is a different player than the one we saw get eliminated in the second round at this event in 2022.

Like Tiafoe, Khachanov has not really had to break a sweat through the first two rounds. He dispatched Bernabe Zapata Miralles in straight sets and then got by a tricky opponent, Jason Kubler, in the Round of 64. 

Both Tiafoe and Khachanov want to dictate their matches with their first serve, and so far, they’ve been able to do just that. Both players have faced a total of 12 break points through their first two contests, but those numbers should tick up considerably on Thursday night.

Both of these players should be brimming with confidence after making it to the semifinal at the last Grand Slam, but it’s Tiafoe who seems to hold the betting value as just a slight favorite. 

While we have a pretty good idea of where the ceiling is for Khachanov and know that he can raise his game to an elite level at times, we could be just at the beginning of the Tiafoe ascendancy, which means the numbers we’re using to handicap (and set odds for) his matches are actually underrating the Maryland native, who seems to relish these Grand Slam moments now.

As the odds suggest, this is a tight match that will likely be decided on the margins, but Tiafoe should have enough answers for the questions he’s asked in Melbourne tonight.