Avalanche vs. Blackhawks prediction: look to first-period market

Ahead of Monday night’s Western Conference NHL clash, we’re set to offer an Avalanche vs. Blackhawks prediction and best bet.

Colorado cruises into this game having won five straight games, including a 5-1 road win on Saturday against the Detroit Red Wings. For the Blackhawks, they saw their two-game winning streak come to an end on Saturday against the Arizona Coyotes, who defeated Chicago 4-2 at home.

The Avalanche enter as a heavy -450 favorite with the Blackhawks sitting at +350 on the moneyline. As for the total, it’s set at six goals, juiced -115 to the over.

Colorado Avalanche 1P -0.5 Goal (-120)

While it feels a touch dangerous to back a team riding high in the first period, the Blackhawks tend to struggle in the opening frame when they’re a heavy underdog.

For the Avalanche, they’ve won the first period in three of their past five games and five of the past 10. But, if you shrink the sample down to their past six wins, Colorado has claimed the opening frame in four games.

The Blackhawks are coming off a first-period win in Arizona and have won three of their past four road first periods, making this the perfect sell-high spot against an infinitely better opponent.

Plus, this fits a historically profitable trend when it comes to fading the Blackhawks early.

Per the Action Network Labs database, sportsbooks have listed the Blackhawks as a +325 underdog or higher for the full game nine times. In those nine matchups, Chicago is a dismal 1-8-0 (W-L-T) in the first period against those opponents.

Additionally, this effectively comes down to whether the Avalanche can score in the first period. In the Blackhawks’ eight first-period losses against quality opposition, they’ve failed to score in seven of those games. Given Chicago has conceded a first-period goal in 20 of their 33 road games this season, bettors should feel confident that will transpire.

Further, if you look at the Blackhawks’ last trip to Colorado to face the Avalanche — that came in their first game of the season — bettors will find they also lost the first period in that game.

Beyond all those betting trends, there are some clear matchup advantages for the Avalanche here, and one element is notable. The Avalanche arrive with the fifth-best power-play percentage in the league this year and are facing a Blackhawks penalty kill that ranks 20th in the corresponding defensive category.

The Avalanche also own the fourth-best defensive record in terms of goals against this season and are preparing to face a Blackhawks offense that ranks second-to-last in expected goals share at five-on-five, per moneypuck.com.

Thus, back the Avalanche to claim the first period against an inferior opponent.