Avalanche vs Blackhawks Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Picks (Feb. 29)
Odds as of February 29, 2024, at Bet365 Sportsbook. Claim the Bet365 promo code to bet on Avalanche vs Blackhawks.
Colorado Betting Analysis
Despite sitting near the top of the Stanley Cup odds, Colorado comes into this game with a lackluster 4-5-1 record in their past 10 contests. They snapped a two-game losing streak with a 5-1 victory over the Dallas Stars on Tuesday night.
Colorado can be the best team in the NHL on any given night, but they need to figure out their consistency issues. The Avs haven’t strung together two consecutive victories since winning three straight from Jan. 20-26.
The Avalanche’s biggest strength is its offense, led by Hart Trophy odds contender Nathan MacKinnon. The 28-year-old center is enjoying his best season to date, recording 35 goals and 63 assists through 60 games. Colroado’s offense averages 3.65 goals per game, second-most in the NHL.
Defensively, the Avs have plenty of issues; Colorado is giving up 3.65 goals per game, which ranks 17th in the league. Alexander Georgiev hasn’t been overly impressive, posting a 31-14-3 record with a .900 save percentage and 2.88 GAA.
The good news for Colorado bettors is Valeri Nichushkin is out of the NHL/NHLPA player assistance program and expected to return to the Avs lineup Thursday. Meanwhile, Captain Gabe Landeskog remains out with his knee injury.
Chicago Betting Analysis
The Blackhawks are once again sitting near the bottom of the NHL standings, making them the ultimate longshot in the NHL Playoff Bracket. Chicago, despite featuring Calder Trophy odds favorite Connor Bedard, has dropped their past four games.
The last time the Blackhawks took the ice was Monday against Detroit, when Patrick Kane scored the OT winner against his former team for a 3-2 victory. Chicago held a 2-1 lead after two periods and for much of the third before falling 3-2 in the extra session.
Connor Bedard has been one of the few bright spots for a Chicago team that now has just one victory in their past 13 outings. Bedard sells tickets with his dazzling play that has led to him recording 17 goals and 23 assists through 45 games.
Another positive for the Hawks is their penalty kill, which has killed off 16 of the past 18 opposition power plays over the past 18 games. The Blackhawks still rank just 22nd in PK percentage (78%), but they are playing disciplined hockey with only four penalties taken in their last three games.
The Blackhawks average 2.07 goals per game, which is dead-last in the NHL. They are a bit better defensively, allowing 3.51 goals per contest (27th). Goaltender Petr Mrazek boasts a .909 save percentage and is capable of stealing games despite an ugly 13-22-4 record.
COL vs CHI Team Stats
Avalanche vs Blackhawks Prediction
It’s no secret which team has been better this season, as the Thursday NHL odds paint a clear picture of a lopsided matchup on ESPN. However, when you break down the recent play of the two teams, this line is likely too inflated.
For starters, Colorado has a miserable 49 xGF% at even strength over the past month, while the Blackhawks are sporting a 42% xGF. Yes, Chicago has been the worse possession team, but Colorado isn’t exactly dominating the opposition.
Nichuskin’s return is a nice boost for the Avs, but we actually see some value with the Chicago puck line Thursday. Bet365 is offering the Hawks at -105 to keep this game within two goals, which isn’t a price you can often get for the betting underdog.
A key reason for our prediction is goalie Petr Mrazek, who has been more reliable than Georgiev this season. In 10 career starts against the Avs, the Czech netminder has come to play, boasting a stellar .937 career save percentage vs Colorado.
- Blackhawks PL +1.5 (-105)
- Petr Mrazek Over Saves (TBD)
