Barcelona vs Man United prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for Europa League match

The Sporting News

16 February 2023

Barcelona vs Man United prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for Europa League match

A top-tier contest graces the Europa League knockout playoff round as Barcelona host Manchester United in the first leg of a matchup that will send one of those superpowers into the Round of 16 of the competition.

It feels early in the tournament for these two high-powered teams to be facing off, but such is the format. Barcelona enter the knockout playoffs as a drop-down side from the Champions League group stage, while Man United finished second in their group behind Real Sociedad which forced the Red Devils to play this extra round.

Therefore, the La Liga title favorites meet the third-place Premier League side with 24 teams still remaining in the Europa League.

Both sides will likely place a very high priority on this competition knowing that advancement past this stage would put them as one of the biggest favorites to lift the trophy by the end of the tournament, alongside Arsenal, Monaco, Roma, Union Berlin, and La Real.

Barcelona vs Man United odds

As dominant La Liga leaders, Barcelona are rightly tabbed as favorites here at home, but respect is still shown to Manchester United, who sit at around 3/1 underdogs.

Goals are expected in this match, with the in-form Marcus Rashford matching up against the La Liga top goalscorer Robert Lewandowski.

Barcelona vs Man United: 3 things to know

Here is everything you need to know about the Europa League matchup, including team news and the most notable trends.

Barcelona vs Man United match facts

Date: Thursday, February 16
Kickoff Time: 12:45 pm ET / 5:45 pm GMT / 4:45 am AEDT (Fri, Feb. 17)
Location: Camp Nou (Barcelona, Spain)
Official: Maurizio Mariani (Italy)

Barcelona vs Man United team news

Barcelona had most of their squad available for selection in front of the home fans, but there are two key players absent. Ousmane Dembele has been missing for weeks with a hamstring injury, and wasn't quite ready to return for this big game. Sergio Busquets went down with a nasty looking ankle injury over the weekend and missed this game as well.

Man United boss Erik ten Hag had a significant number of absences to navigate. Lisandro Martinez is suspended for yellow card accumulation, as is midfielder Marcel Sabitzer, whose suspension carries over from his group stage play with Bayern Munich. Sabitzer's absence compounds the issues in midfield, with Christian Eriksen, Scott McTominay, and Donny van de Beek all out injured.

Casemiro returned despite his domestic suspension to partner Fred, while young academy products Kobbie Mainoo and Zidane Iqbal travelled with the squad. Up front, Antony and Anthony Martial missed out due to injury.

Barcelona vs Man United key stats

Barcelona have won four straight games against Manchester United, dating back to a 2008 Champions League meeting which the Red Devils won 1-0. All-time, Barcelona have won six, lost three, and drawn five against their English opponents.
Last time these two teams faced off, Barcelona secured a 3-0 victory on April 16, 2019. The goalscorers from that game, Lionel Messi and Philippe Coutinho, are no longer with the Spanish club. In fact, seven of the 11 starters, two of the three substitutes, and the head coach are all no longer with Barcelona.
Marcus Rashford is arguably the hottest striker in Europe, scoring in eight of his last nine Premier League appearances, and 12 of 15 matches in all competitions since returning from the 2022 FIFA World Cup.
Despite playing in 127 career European matches, Robert Lewandowski has never faced Manchester United in his career.

Barcelona vs Man United prediction

Moneyline lean: Draw (+290)
Against-the-spread lean (handicap): Barcelona -0.5 (-145)
Score prediction: Barcelona 1-1 Man United

These teams both enter this stage of play in excellent form, and that can often make for an entertaining match. They also profile quite differently.

Barcelona will control the midfield, and have the better defenders, as well as the in-form goalkeeper of the two clubs. Manchester United, meanwhile, have the better forward line, or at least the more in-form attacking unit. Sure Robert Lewandowski wholly outclasses Wout Weghorst, but the Polish frontman is in poor form, slumping after going on a first-half tear.

Manchester United's Marcus Rashford, meanwhile, is on a blistering goalscoring streak and the options alongside him are high quality, with Jadon Sancho experiencing a revival and the young duo of Alejandro Garnacho and Facundo Pellistri providing a late injection of energy off the bench.

In such matches where the sides present such different character traits, they can often cancel out. This could prove a tight affair where every moment matters, which is why the draw is our projected result. But if you're opting for a handicap play, keep in mind that the chances of Barcelona securing a home win strongly outweigh the possibility of a road victory by Man United at the Camp Nou.

Barcelona vs Man United: Best bet

Pick: Under 2.5 goals
Odds: +105 (BetMGM)

There is significant value in the under in this match, as is often the case in a matchup between two high-profile European clubs. The market inflates the over, as fans want to see goals and end up betting with their hearts.

Take advantage here. Barcelona have become an incredible defensive side, nearly unrecognizable from their leaky Champions League days earlier this season. Manchester United are solid defensively as well, conceding just four goals in their last six matches across all competitions since the 3-2 defeat to Arsenal.

Ronald Araujo, who was injured during Barcelona's Champions League nightmare, has emerged as Barcelona's best and grittiest defender over the last few weeks, and he will be tasked with challenging in-form United attacker Marcus Rashford in the penalty area. If you add in that Robert Lewandowski is suffering through his first bout of poor form at Barcelona, potentially still rusty from his three-match La Liga suspension back in January, and this looks to be a defensive battle across the 90 minutes.

Barcelona vs Man United prop bet

Pick: Scoreless first half
Odds: +210 (BetMGM)

It's somewhat surprising that given the slight swing in favour of the goal total going over, a scoreless first half (officially listed as "1st half result: tie and under 0.5 combined goals score") comes with such relatively low odds. But it's worth a play anyway.

Until Barcelona's most recent victory over Villarreal last weekend, the Spanish side had gone four consecutive matches reaching halftime with no score for either side. Manchester United have also reached halftime scoreless in three of their last five matches.

It's also fully acceptable to take on a somewhat safer approach and go with a play of more goals in the 2nd half at +100, but the value on the scoreless first half is worth the added risk.

Barcelona vs Man United flier bet

Pick: Marcus Rashford last goalscorer
Odds: +600 (BetMGM)
Pick: Barcelona to win 1H / Man United to win 2H
Odds: +900 (Caesars)

Marcus Rashford is on an absolute tear. With 13 goals in his last 15 matches, he's undoubtedly Manchester United's greatest goalscoring threat.

Nearly his entire attacking output has come in the second half. Of that aforementioned streak, only four of his 13 goals have come in the first half, while the other nine came after the break. Erik ten Hag knows this too, and leaves him on the pitch for the full match nearly every time; in the nine Premier League matches in that stretch, Rashford was subbed off in just the first two, playing the full 90 in each of the last seven.

Robert Lewandowski has instead been an early-game option up front, and Barcelona have often looked to strike before halftime and then hang on late. With this expected to be a defensive battle, expect a decisive moment from Rashford to come down the stretch as opposed to the initial run of play.