Barcelona vs Real Madrid prediction, odds and betting tips
Real Madrid realistically need to win the Clasico on Sunday to have any chance of beating Barcelona to the La Liga title.
Barcelona vs Real Madrid odds
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Barcelona vs Real Madrid predictions
While Real Madrid were busy booking their place in the quarter-finals of the Champions League on Wednesday, Barcelona had the week off.
That might help them this weekend, but it is ultimately a source of disappointment for a club that has struggled in continental competition in recent years.
For the second season running, Barcelona were knocked out of the Champions League in the group phase.
A third-place finish behind Bayern Munich and Inter saw Xavi Hernandez’s men relegated to the Europa League, where they again fell at the first hurdle.
A 4-3 aggregate defeat by Manchester United sent the Catalan outfit packing in the knockout round play-offs.
Falling well short in two European tournaments has only increased the pressure on Barcelona to pick up silverware domestically.
And in fairness to Xavi’s side, they are on course to do just that. Barca lead Madrid 1-0 in their Copa del Rey semi-final, with the second leg scheduled for April 5.
They also have a nine-point advantage over their arch-rivals in La Liga, where Barcelona are seeking a first title since 2019.
This weekend’s clash is do or die for Madrid’s hopes of retaining the championship. Anything less than a win at Camp Nou would in effect hand the prize to Barcelona, who are highly unlikely to throw away such a sizable lead.
Barcelona vs Real Madrid betting tips
Home advantage could be key to determining the outcome of Sunday’s game, which looks set to be low-scoring.
Barcelona to win – 11/10 (bet365)
Real Madrid ran out 3-1 winners in the first Clasico of the campaign at the Estadio Santiago Bernabeu.
That victory saw Carlo Ancelotti’s side go top of the table. Madrid, the defending champions, were at that point the favourites to win the title ahead of a new-look Barcelona team.
It was widely thought that the Blancos would be more consistent over the course of a 38-game season, not least because of how dominant they were in 2021/22.
Instead, it is Barcelona who have been the more reliable of the two giants since that 3-1 loss in the middle of October.
Xavi’s team have dropped only five points in the subsequent five months, drawing 1-1 with Espanyol and losing 1-0 to Almeria.
Madrid, for their part, have come unstuck against Girona, Rayo Vallecano, Villarreal, Real Sociedad, Real Mallorca, Atletico Madrid and Real Betis.
Winning the Champions League for a record-extending 15th time would go a long way towards making up for their La Liga shortcomings.
But Madrid could be in for a tough evening at the Camp Nou, where Barcelona have won 10 and drawn two of their league assignments this season – giving them the best home record in the division.
A win would essentially knock Madrid out of the title race, so Barcelona have a huge incentive to win Sunday’s showdown.
Under 2.5 goals – Evens (bet365)
The most remarkable thing about Barcelona’s title tilt is that it has been built on a rock-solid defence.
Before a ball had been kicked this season, the widespread assumption was that Barcelona’s star-studded attack would have to bail out an unconvincing backline on a regular basis.
Instead, Barcelona’s opponents have struggled immensely to find a way past their back four and goalkeeper Marc-Andre ter Stegen, who is having a brilliant season.
Xavi’s side recently beat Madrid 1-0 in the Copa del Rey. That has been their favourite scoreline this term: Barcelona have won no fewer than 11 matches by a goal to nil, including nine in the league.
It is best to steer clear of the correct score market, even though backing another 1-0 is tempting.
Instead, consider adding under 2.5 goals to your betslip. Barcelona have a remarkable defensive record on home turf, with just one goal conceded in 12 La Liga games.
Astonishingly, no visiting Spanish team has scored from open play at the Camp Nou in 2022/23. Madrid could break that record, but this is unlikely to be a game with lots of goals.
Raphinha to score any time – 13/5 (bet365)
It is fair to say that Raphinha did not exactly hit the ground running after joining Barcelona from Leeds United last summer.
Before the World Cup, the Brazil international contributed just two goals and two assists in La Liga.
He has been much more productive over the last couple of months, with eight direct goal involvements in his last 11 outings in all competitions.
Raphinha has stepped up in the absence of the injured Ousmane Dembele, who has been on the treatment table since the end of January.
He has notched the winner in Barcelona’s last two matches against Valencia and Athletic Bilbao, and will be full of confidence heading into Sunday’s game.
Robert Lewandowski is the favourite to score any time, but by his high standards, he has not been in great form in front of the goal in recent weeks.
The Poland international has scored just twice in his last seven games, and while it is only a matter of time before his rate picks up, Raphinha looks like the better choice for this match.
How to watch Barcelona vs Real Madrid
- Location: Camp Nou, Barcelona, Spain.
- Date and time: Sunday 19 March 2023, 8pm.
- How to watch: Viaplay Sports 1, LaLigaTV.
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