Bayern Munich vs. Manchester City odds, prediction: Take this team total in Champions League match

Before Wednesday’s second UEFA Champions League leg kicks off from Munich, we’re here to offer a Bayern Munich vs. Manchester City prediction.

If Bayern are to reach the semifinals, they’ll have to achieve what’s nearly impossible. In last week’s first leg at the Etihad, City handed Bayern a deserved 3-0 drubbing.

Now, City simply need a win, draw or loss by two or fewer goals to reach the semifinals. For the hosts, they need a 3-0 win just to send the match to extra time.

City are a +138 favorite with Bayern priced at +170 and the draw +275 on the three-way moneyline. The total is set at 3.5 goals, juiced -175 to the under.

Bayern Munich vs. Manchester City Prediction

Bayern Munich Team Total Under 1.5 Goals (-140 | Bet at -140 or better)

The hill is monumental for Bayern and it doesn’t help they’re playing arguably the best defense in the world.

Albeit in a match away from home, the Bayern offensive output was quite concerning. Across the entire first leg, manager Thomas Tuchel’s side created only 0.88 expected goals off 12 total shots and 0.42 expected goals on target (xGOT) off four tallies on City goalkeeper Ederson’s frame, per fotmob.com.

While a boost from a friendly home crowd should lead to higher-quality chances — Bayern create 1.08 npxGOT per 90 more in the Bundesliga at the Allianz — it might be enough to see them score two or more goals.

That’s largely due to the fact City are a defensive juggernaut, even away from home, and prevent very few scoring chances when playing with a lead.

Through 15 English Premier League road fixtures, City are allowing only 0.66 npxGOT per 90 minutes. Even if you shrink that sample down to road fixtures against Newcastle United, Liverpool, Chelsea, Manchester United, Tottenham and Arsenal, the average is still 1.05 npxGOT per 90 minutes.

Additionally, in all qualifying games this season when City are playing with exactly a one-goal advantage, they’re conceding only 1.07 expected goals per 90 minutes, per understat.com.

But, when they have a cushion of two or more goals, the average drops to 0.94 xG per 90 minutes in what’s the hardest domestic league by UEFA coefficients.

On the flip-side, this is a Bayern Munich attack that, at least in the Bundesliga, has never played from behind more than one goal. When they are down by exactly one tally, they generate 2.33 xG per 90, but in what’s considered a more open league.

Add in, too, that Bayern lack a true striker to lead an onslaught against a new City formation that can convert into a back-five at a moment’s notice and I expect they’ll struggle to score.

Take Bayern’s team total under 1.5 so long as it remains at -140 or better.

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