Best NBA Parlays Today: Picks, Predictions for Wednesday's Games
Is Brandon Ingram capable of leading the New Orleans Pelicans to a Western Conference playoff berth? Jon MetlerNBA odds.
Wednesday night will be an important night for the Chicago Bulls, Toronto Raptors, Oklahoma City Thunder, and New Orleans Pelicans, as the winner of each game will advance to compete against the Miami Heat and Minnesota Timberwolves for the final playoff spot in their respective conferences.
The stakes are high, so we should have two very exciting games, but unfortunately I'm going to ruin your day by placing some Under bets. I apologize, but I'm trying to increase our bankroll by getting some green checkmarks over here.
Here are our NBA SGP picks for Wednesday (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook).
Wednesday's NBA SGP picks
Bulls vs. Raptors odds
NBA SGP predictions: Bulls vs. Raptors
Zach LaVine Under 25.5 points vs. Raptors (-115)
Bulls guard Zach LaVine has a higher points total than teammate DeMar DeRozan, with 25.5 compared to 21.5 points, both much lower than where they usually trade. With DeRozan's revenge angle in play with our Bulls vs. Raptors predictions, my attention turns to LaVine, and the numbers indicate a better chance of LaVine going Under his total.
The projected scoring total for LaVine against the Raptors is 23.9 points, so this will be a sweat, but it's a wager with a positive expected value. Based on this projection, we can price LaVine at -155 to go Under the total of 25.5 points, yet we're able to purchase it at -115.
DeMar DeRozan Under 4.5 rebounds vs. Raptors (+112)
The Under on DeRozan's rebounding prop is currently trading at -111 on Pinnacle, so when you see it trading at +112 on FanDuel, it immediately catches your attention. After removing the vig from the Pinnacle price, it means that their trading team believes that the Under should be trading at +104. Although the difference between a +104 and +112 might seem insignificant, it represents a positive expected value of 4%.
We can price this prop at +105 to go Under the total as DeRozan is projected to grab 4.8 rebounds against the Raptors on Wednesday. It's very close to where the trading team at Pinnacle has their line, which leads me to believe that the rogue line is the Under 4.5 rebounds (+112) at FanDuel, not the Over priced at -120 via Pinnacle.
NBA SGP predictions: Thunder vs. Pelicans
Brandon Ingram Under 30.5 points vs. Thunder (-113)
This is not an Ingram hit piece; he's been playing well of late, however, it's a wager against the number. For a player prop, I prefer betting on the Over, but sometimes you have to take what the defense gives you, and this total is simply too high.
As Ingram is projected to score 28.8 points against the Thunder in the Play-In Tournament, this prop should be trading at -145 instead of -113. We're not implying that Ingram will have an awful game by playing the Under, but rather that the line is a couple of points higher than it should be for our Thunder vs. Pelicans predictions.
Brandon Ingram Under 7.5 assists vs. Thunder (-125)
Similar to Ingram's points prop, Ingram's assist prop also has inflated odds. A total of 7.5 assists for a player who averaged 5.8 assists per game throughout the season? There's no doubt that his usage in an important game will be high, however I believe that the sportsbooks have this jacked up much higher than it should be in order to combat Over bets.
It's projected that Ingram will drop 6.7 dimes against the Thunder on Wednesday, which means that we can price this prop at -180. By placing this bet at FanDuel, you'll also have the opportunity to take advantage of a nice price shopping opportunity. At FanDuel, the Under is trading at -125, while it's trading at -143 at Caesars and -139 at BetRivers.
NBA player prop picks made 4/12/2023 at 5:30 a.m. ET.
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