Best NRFI Bets Today, April 14
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Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees - Tyler Mahle (R) vs Nestor Cortes (L)
Over 0.5 (-120 at DraftKings)
Our first bet on the first inning total for Friday night is the first inning over in the game between the Minnesota Twins and New York Yankees. At this point, betting first-inning under on Yankees games is gambling malpractice. With the Yankees seeing at least one run scored in all but two of their first 13 games, bettors can feel confident that these two offenses will get a run across the plate in this first inning as well.
Last night, the Twins scored nine runs in the top of the first inning against the Yankees, lighting up Jhony Brito in the opening half-inning of the game. Tonight, the Twins face Nestor Cortes, who is certainly better than Brito, but not invincible. But the main focus in the first inning from a scoring perspective will be the Yankees lineup against Tyler Mahle in the bottom half of the first.
Mahle has an early season ERA of 4.09, and has allowed a home run previously this season as well. Against a potent Yankees lineup that will be looking to set the tone early in this game, expect Mahle to be vulnerable to an early scoring chance for New York. But the math has been more important than the matchups in first innings of Yankees games so far this season.
At this point in the season, the Yankees have seen a run or more in the first inning in 84% of their games. Given the tendency of so many bettors to take the NRFI option in this market, books can’t fully adjust their lines to account for that high hit rate for the over. As a result, we will take the YRFI in Yankees games until they give us a reason to do otherwise.
Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers - Justin Steele (L) vs Noah Syndergaard (R)
Over 0.5 (-120 at FanDuel)
Another YRFI that we like for Friday night is in Los Angeles, in the game between the Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers. Here, Noah Syndergaard takes the mound for the Dodgers, which would have been a scary sight for opposing teams a few years ago. Now, though, Syndergaard is really struggling at the back end of the Dodgers rotation, which will mean early scoring chances for Chicago.
So far this season, Syndergaard is 0-1 with a 6.30 ERA, with more hits allowed than innings pitched on the year. He has also allowed a couple of home runs, meaning that he is vulnerable to crashing the NRFI side of this betting market with just one Chicago swing. Syndergaard’s struggles should continue on Friday night against a Cubs team that is above .500, starting with the top of the first inning.
On the other side, the Dodgers are always a threat to score some runs in the first inning themselves. Mookie Betts has made a habit of leading off his team’s half of the first inning with extra-base hits this season, with Betts posting seven extra-base hits in 13 games so far. He will set the table once again for the Dodgers, who may have to play catch-up in the bottom of the first inning.
San Francisco Giants vs Detroit Tigers - Sean Manaea (L) vs Joey Wentz (L)
Over 0.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Our final bet on the NRFI/YRFI market for today is another contrarian pick on the YRFI side of things. This time, it is for the game between the San Francisco Giants and Detroit Tigers. In this interleague matchup, we expect the Giants to set the tone by getting on the board early, thanks in large part to the struggles of Detroit starting pitcher Joey Wentz.
So far this season, Wentz is 0-2 with a 10.29 ERA, meaning that he is giving up over a run per inning pitched on average for the season. In just seven innings of work, Wentz has allowed five hits and five walks, with his control really being an issue for Detroit early in the year. In his last start, he gave up five earned runs in 1.2 innings of work to the Boston Red Sox, and we should see him continue to struggle to locate pitches against the Giants.
Detroit’s offense certainly has a chance to score some runs of its own on Friday night, against a pitcher in Sean Manaea who has an ERA of 4.29 early in the year. The Tigers showed that they can score runs in a surprisingly competitive series with the Toronto Blue Jays this week. Look for them to keep their offensive momentum going in the bottom of the first on Friday night.
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AUTHOR
Caleb Tallman
102 Articles
I am a huge sports fan; locally, many know me as the guy who does the PA for our high school football team on Friday nights. Having grown up in Michigan, I am a sports fan of all the Detroit teams, and at the college level, I love Michigan State sports.
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