Best WNBA Player Props Today
The Atlanta Dream got a good look at the potential of this high-power Liberty team last Friday, with New York blasting Atlanta on its own floor. This time, the Dream come to Brooklyn for a rematch, and guard Rhyne Howard leads the charge for the visitors.
Howard scored 15 points against the Liberty last week despite a down day in shooting. She went 4-for-12 from the field, 3 of 7 from deep, and left money on the table by going a mediocre 4-for-7 from the charity stripe.
She's averaging 16.7 points on the season and that’s where her point prop for Tuesday’s tilt is parked — at 16.5.
Howard is logging major minutes due to a depleted Atlanta backcourt missing veterans Aari McDonald and Danielle Robinson, and her player projections are calling for a big night in the Big Apple, with some as high as 21.6 points.
The Liberty could be down starting guard Sabrina Ionescu (hamstring) tonight, which means the New York backcourt gets a shakeup. Reserve guard Marine Johannes could start or see more minutes, pairing with veteran Courtney Vandersloot and dulling the perimeter defenses for New York.
The Liberty are allowing foes to fire at a 35.5% clip from beyond the arc on the season (fourth highest) with those opponents cashing in 7.5 triples per contest. Atlanta ranks fourth in 3-point shooting (35.1%) for 7.6 makes from distance per game — 2.5 of those from Howard.
The potential up-tempo pace and growing total for this matchup paints a higher-scoring game script, and with the spread at double digits, Atlanta will be playing from behind and looking to Howard to take and make a lot of shots.
Rhyne Howard prop: Over 16.5 points (-113 at FanDuel)
As a sports bettor, you’re going to have games in which you know your handicap was right and you sought out the best of the number — yet still, your bet lost.
That was me with Kelsey Mitchell’s point prop on Sunday. I snatched up the Indiana Fever veteran guard to go Over 17.5 points against Phoenix, with her scoring projections all sitting north of that total. And then Mitchell shot the ball just nine times and finished with 12 points in 36 minutes.
On the season, the 5-foot-8 firecracker is scoring 16.8 points per game on an average of 14 field goal attempts. Player models for Tuesday are calling for Mitchell to get back in the mix of the Indiana offense and have her forecasted for closer to 19 points against Washington tonight.
As a kicker (which I also pointed out on the weekend), Mitchell comes alive in front of the Fever faithful. In the first two home games of the season, she posted 20 and 22 points. She averaged 20 points per home game last season (vs. 16.6 ppg on the road) and has posted three more points at home than away for her pro career.
The Fever do face a very stingy Mystics' defense with Elena Delle Donne expected to be back in the lineup after missing Washington’s game in Seattle this weekend. Mitchell doesn’t shrink against tougher teams, with her biggest scoring outputs of the season coming against Connecticut (20 and 19 points) and Las Vegas (22 points), who rank among the defensive elite.
Kelsey Mitchell prop: Over 16.5 points (-113 at FanDuel)
The Footprint Center is a sight for sore eyes with the Phoenix Mercury back home against Seattle after a three-game road trip.
The home court is a welcome change in venue for veteran guard Diana Taurasi. While she played solid basketball during that trip — averaging more than 16 points per game — her touch from outside was off.
She shot a collective 5-for-25 from beyond the arc in those three games and has really struggled to hit from distance when away from Phoenix, going just 6-for-34 from 3-point range on the road (17.6%).
Put DT back in Phoenix and it’s a different story. The legendary guard is 10-for-25 (40%) from outside in the Mercury’s three homestands this season. This drastic home/away split is nothing new for Taurasi. Last season, she scored 10 points more per home game and shot 39.4% from deep compared to 27.5% away from the desert.
Tuesday’s opponent just so happens to be playing the worst perimeter defense in the league. The Storm watch rivals make better than 39% of their long-range looks for an average of 8.1 threes allowed per game to start the season.
Player projections for Taurasi are calling for a ceiling of 21 points tonight with at least eight attempts from beyond the arc, good for 2.2 3-pointers. I don't think the models nor the WNBA props are accounting enough for Taurasi's wild swing in performance at home.
Given the rising spread (Phoenix moved from -5.5 to -7) and climbing total, the game script is calling for plenty of points from Phoenix. And with DT’s home cooking and EVEN money price tag on Over 2.5 made threes, I'm banking on her to bang at least three triples tonight.
Diana Taurasi prop: Over 2.5 made threes (+100 at bet365)
