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Nationals vs. Mets Pick
The Mets will be under .500 at the trade deadline and enter tonight’s matchup 7.5 games out of the NL Wild Card. So, this may be their last homestand before the white flag is waved.
However, their morale does not matter to the Washington Nationals, who have found some magic of late. They come in winners of six of their last 10 and mounted two straight comeback victories in their most recent series against the Colorado Rockies.
Washington boasts the sixth-best batting average in the majors. However, it ranks second-to-last in xwOBAcon, sitting just two points better than the Oakland A’s in that category. What those stats point to is a ton of BABIP luck, which is due to run out.
To their credit, the Nationals have maximized their good fortune by putting the ball in play more than any other team in the league. However, they will have a tough time doing so against Kodai Senga.
Senga has been tremendous in his first big-league season, holding a 3.27 ERA through 18 starts with an astounding 29.7% strikeout rate.
Senga’s arsenal, which features his signature “ghost fork,” is not only good for missing bats but generating soft contact. The Nationals are long overdue for their batted balls to find some mitts, and it should happen tonight.
The Mets’ level of hard contact points to positive regression, as their team xBA is 10 points higher than their actual batting average. It also helps that they’ll have both a good matchup and the weather on their side tonight to cash in some of that positive regression.
Tonight, New York will be up against NL All-Star Josiah Gray. The young right-hander was the main piece of the blockbuster trade that sent Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to LA. The trade has started to pay off, as Gray has looked solid this season while pitching to a 3.45 ERA in 20 starts.
His command, however, is cause for concern, and it has inflated his WHIP to 1.44. Those command mistakes have also led to an average barrel rate, which, when combined with the traffic on the basepaths, points to sizable regression.
Gray’s xERA sits over a full run higher at 4.53, and unfortunately for Washington, he has the second-worst bullpen in terms of ERA behind him. So, the Mets bats should heat up against the Nats tonight.
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