Betting 101: Explaining Commonly Cited Metrics and Factors in our Handicapping

The PFF Betting staff uses various advanced metrics in the handicapping process. Expected Points Added (EPA) is a measure of success which defines the value of each play by the effect it has on the offense's likelihood to score.

Tommy Jurgens explains the metrics that PFF Bet explains in the latest Betting 101 series.

Game script is a factor in betting on a game. It predicts how a team will play and how players will be used.

Expected Points Added (EPA) is a measure of success. EPA is an estimate of how many points a team will score on a drive. It is often used to bet on over- or under-achieving players. It's also used as a tool to assess a player's contribution to the offense. Sports betting analysts cite EPA and Play because it's a reliable measure.

Win Probability Added (WPA) is a measure of how much more likely a team is to win a game before and after each play.

Success Rate is a play-by-play efficiency metric. Success rate is based on down and distance, and can be attributed to both offense and defense. When a team's success rate deviates from its results, regression should be expected.

Traditional statistics do not accurately assess individual performance. Player efficiency measures like Rushing Yards Over Expected and Completion Percentage Over Expectation are useful in identifying edges in the player props market. For example, if a player has positive RYOE despite a modest rushing-yardage total, it might incline us to back his rushing yardage Over versus a favorable opponent.

ELO is a power rating used to assess relative skill between opponents. It has proven to be accurate in predicting the outcome of football games.

Football Outsiders' DVOA is a scaled metric of each team's performance relative to the opposition. It is more effective than traditional rating systems because it knows how teams perform in different scenarios.