Betting odds for NBA All-Star Game, even though rosters aren't set? Here's how they did it.

Eagle Tribune
 
Betting odds for NBA All-Star Game, even though rosters aren't set? Here's how they did it.

The NBA All-Star Game is continuing its popular player-draft format for the 2023 edition, which takes place Sunday to wrap up All-Star weekend in Salt Lake City, but this time there's another twist.

Team captains LeBron James and Giannis Antetokounmpo won't pick their teams until just before tipoff, giving the game a true backyard basketball feel and creating some last-minute drama. You might think such a change would make it difficult for sportsbooks to post betting odds on the game. But you'd be wrong.

David Lieberman, the Pro Basketball Lead for Caesars Sportsbook, and his team posted a line Thursday, making Team LeBron a 1½-point favorite over Team Giannis. How'd they do it, only knowing the identity of one player from each team?

"The first idea that popped in my head is we could put up a pick 'em line and be pretty safe," Lieberman said. "If we don't know the teams and no one else knows the teams, and it's an All-Star game, then it's a pretty safe bet it'll be close to a pick."

Ultimately, Caesars shaded the line toward Team LeBron because of the newly christened NBA scoring leader's history in these events. This is the fifth consecutive year James has served as a captain, and he's won each of the previous four (notably two were against Giannis, though one was by just two points).

"The LeBron factor definitely gives them a small edge," Lieberman said. "His team has won all these games in a row, and he usually takes it seriously and is the type of player that might try to win it more than some other guys."

Since that point, the line has pushed out to Team LeBron -3 on the point spread and -155 on the money line — a movement that Lieberman said coincided with Antetokounmpo injuring his wrist in the Milwaukee Bucks' final regular-season game before the break Thursday.

"I actually think we have taken more bets on Team Giannis because they were the underdogs and you can get plus money, but the line moved once Giannis got hurt," Lieberman said.

Of course, there could be more movement once the rosters are actually selected. Could a selection of Dallas Mavericks star Luka Doncic or two-time MVP Nikola Jokic of the Denver Nuggets sway the line in the final minutes before tipoff?

"This being the first time they're doing this, I'm actually interested to see how the market reacts to it as much as you are," Lieberman said. "Yeah, I could see it moving a little bit based on who goes where, but we'll have to wait and see."

The game's over/under is 325½, another difficult number to set because of the Elam Ending — a modern way of ending a game in which the fourth quarter uses a target score for the winning team to reach rather than a clock.

Lieberman said Caesars is also seeing quite a bit of action on Saturday's All-Star events, particularly the 3-point contest and dunk contest. No one has better than +380 odds among the 3-point shooters (Portland's Damian Lillard is the favorite at that price), so expect a wide-open competition.