Betting predictions for England vs Fiji: Rugby World Cup tips and odds

Our betting expert has three England vs Fiji tips for the Rugby World Cup quarter-final at the Stade Velodrome on Sunday (kick-off, 4pm BST). Scroll down to see the analysis behind his selections.

England v Fiji betting tips

• 41 to 50 total points @ 13/5 with Paddy Power
• Marcus Smith any-time tryscorer @ SP with Paddy Power

Odds correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

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Improving England hold advantage

England have been granted an opportunity to avenge their shock loss to Fiji in the World Cup warm-up games when the sides reconvene for Sunday’s quarter-final showdown in Marseille. 

The Flying Fijians stunned England 30-22 at Twickenham back in August and will be hungry for more in their first World Cup quarter-final appearance in 16 years.

But with England arguably a better team than they were in the summer and boosted by the confidence of winning Pool D, Fiji will find it tough to repeat the trick. 

After such a worrying build-up to the Rugby World Cup, little was expected of England heading into the pool stage, only for Steve Borthwick’s side to enjoy a relatively trouble-free run through their group.

They wore down Argentina with 14 men in their opening game of the tournament before routine wins over Japan and Chile. 

There was nearly a stumble in the final pool clash against Samoa but, having already confirmed a spot in the quarter-finals, motivation levels were questionable and England did eventually edge to a one-point win.

The 2003 World Cup winners had won their previous matches by double-digit margins, thanks largely to some excellent defensive efforts.

Only France and South Africa have conceded fewer points than England (39) and they face a Fiji side who have scored just 88 – the lowest total of the eight quarter-finalists.

For all the talk of free-flowing rugby from Fiji, they’ve struggled to open up opponents during the tournament, scoring 17 points against Georgia and 23 in a stunning loss to Portugal in their final two pool games.

There’s no doubt the Fijians pose a threat if allowed to play with freedom but their performances have steadily declined as the tournament has gone on and they don’t look to have what it takes to upset an England side who have got their act together defensively.

England vs Fiji tip 1: England -8.5 @ 1/1 with Paddy Power

Flurry of points unlikely

England’s defence has needed to be good to make up for their shortcomings with ball in hand and they have scored the fifth-most points in the tournament, despite being in the weakest pool.

Of the 17 tries they ran in during the pool stage, 11 came against minnows Chile. Taking that 71-0 rout out of the equation, England averaged just over 26 points per game in the pool stage.

With Fiji managing just over 20 points per game, albeit in a far more competitive group, and England having sharpened up defensively, the points total in Marseille may be a modest one.

Only one of Fiji’s four pool games went over 50 points and with the added pressure of knockout rugby, expect a tense game. 

Further handicapping the chances of a high-scoring game is the prospect of blustery conditions in Marseille. Wind speeds could surpass 30mph on Sunday, making life tricky for those kicking from the tee.

England vs Fiji tip 2: 41 to 50 total points @ 13/5 with Paddy Power

Smith senses try-scoring opportunity

England coach Borthwick has made some big calls for Sunday's quarter-final, not only dropping George Ford to the bench to allow Owen Farrell to start at fly-half but also by handing Marcus Smith the No 15 shirt.

Freddie Steward, a two-time England player of the year, has been left out of the matchday squad entirely with Smith given another chance at full-back. 

Smith’s last start in the custodian role saw him bag two tries against Chile, and while the calibre of opposition is far greater here, he may still add to his tally of 11 international tries.

Only Henry Arundell has made more clean breaks than Smith for England at the World Cup, despite his limited game time, and the Harlequins ace dotted down for a try in August’s loss to Fiji at Twickenham.

England vs Fiji tip 3: Marcus Smith any-time try scorer @ SP with Paddy Power

England vs Fiji odds

Odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.